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Word games at the Fed
A kid making up rules as it goes along? Yeah, that'd be the central bank.
March 23, 2005: 8:37 AM EST

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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If Alan Greenspan suddenly decided that the best way to signal monetary policy intentions was to run up Constitution Avenue when the Fed was ready to raise rates and run down that street when the Fed was ready to cut them ... I can only imagine how Wall Street economists would sagely nod their collective heads and analyze those signals for us.

Just as they did yesterday when the Fed issued a policy statement (at the conclusion of the meeting where they decided, as widely expected, to hike it's key interest rate for the seventh time since last June) which opened yet another chapter in the history of the Fed's tortured policy statement.

It's bad enough that the whole Fed policy debate hinges on the use of the word "measured" to describe the pace of future rate hikes, a word that was kept yesterday instead of dropped as so many had expected. What's worse is that the Fed has adopted even more convoluted language to send us a "signal" of what their direction is on rates.

But I get ahead of myself. The first weird thing about the Fed's statement yesterday is that it makes clear that there is more worry about inflation now. So why not drop the word "measured"? And even more important, if inflation is more of a threat, why keep the all-important balance of risks equally balanced between inflation and economic slowdown?

Oh, I see. You do that by inventing a new wrinkle on the balance of risks statement, which the Fed inserted yesterday: The risks are equal as long as the Fed follows "appropriate" monetary policy actions.

It reminds me of a little kid playing a game who keeps "remembering" a new rule every time they are losing the game. On one level, this whole exercise is meaningless. The Fed is raising rates and is going to keep raising rates, especially if inflation numbers continue to send warning signals.

That's all that matters to most people. But for the financial markets this could be costly. The Fed has everyone trained to believe that the word measured means no big rate hikes. What if it has to make a bigger rate move and it hasn't dropped that silly word yet?

Also, the Fed holds that it is being more "transparent" with these statements, but it smells like the Fed is actually obfuscating the truth -- that its members are divided over the outlook for inflation, that some want to open the door to more aggressive rate hikes, and others want to keep it closed.

Special Report on the Fed.

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-- Kathleen Hays is economics correspondent for CNN and contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.  Top of page

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