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Wall Street of worry
Futures indicate soft open for stocks as investors watch higher oil, await Federal Reserve minutes.
April 12, 2005: 9:17 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A rebound in oil prices and a widening U.S. trade gap could make it difficult for stocks to get traction Tuesday morning ahead of the latest signal from the Federal Reserve about the thinking of the central bank's policy makers.

U.S. stock futures indicated weakness at the start of trading.

In economic news, the U.S. trade gap grew to a record level in February, a government report showed Tuesday, as the difference between the nation's imports and exports came in well above Wall Street expectations.

The Commerce Department report showed a gap of $61.04 billion with the nation's trading partners, up from the revised $58.5 billion figure in January. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a $59 billion trade gap.

The previous record trade gap was in November 2004 when the deficit reached $59.4 billion.

Oil prices, which ended their week-long decline and started to climb Monday, continued to rise in early trading Tuesday.

The May light crude contract gained 19 cents to $53.90 a barrel in electronic trading, while the May contract for Brent crude rose 28 cents to $53.49.

Michael Carty, stock market strategist with New Millennium Advisors, said that while oil has been a constant concern for investors recently, the weakness in futures is a sign that many traders are waiting to see the minutes of the Federal Reserve's March meeting, due at 2 p.m. ET.

He said investors are worried that the Fed minutes will show a growing concern about inflation risks, raising the expectation of a pick up in the pace of interest rate hikes at future meetings.

"People are concerned about that. It's keeping them at bay," he said. "We had very low volume yesterday, and since we're still not in the full swing of earnings, there's very little out there to lead to buying."

Major markets in Asia closed mixed Tuesday. Major European markets were mixed in early trading.

Treasury prices were slightly lower, lifting the yield on the 10-year note to 4.44 percent from 4.43 late Monday.

The dollar gained slightly on the euro and the yen.

The dollar could see new downward pressure after the February trade report Tuesday. Surveys of economists by both Briefing.com and Reuters have consensus forecasts for a $59 billion trade gap for the month, up from $58.3 billion in January.

But a third of the 21 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the gap to top the $59.4 billion figure from November, the current record.

In corporate news, the Wall Street Journal and New York Times reported Thursday that the board of MCI (Research) is planning to seek an improved offer from Verizon Communications (Research) after Verizon agreed to pay significantly more to MCI's largest shareholder than the $23.10 per share price that the MCI board previously accepted.

For a more detailed look at the markets before the open, click here.  Top of page

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