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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
One year ago, Stephen McPherson was barely into his new job as the head of ABC's nightly entertainment when he announced a series of new television shows that described nicely the network's condition: desperate and lost.
On Tuesday McPherson once again unveiled ABC's coming shows and, once again, the lineup included an apt description of the network and its overall appeal: hot properties.
Hoping to capitalize on a surprisingly strong season for the long-struggling network, McPherson announced a dozen new series, including "Hot Properties," a comedy about four female real estate executives, and the return of several hits, including the campy soap, "Desperate Housewives," and the drama, "Lost."
Viewers hoping for a "Desperate Househusbands" or "Desperate Kids" spinoff series were sorely disappointed. About the only notable tweak the network made to its current hits was a time shift for "Lost," from 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. Wednesdays.
Details of ABC's schedule came on the second day of a week full of fall show announcements by all six major broadcast networks. Once finished, the networks will start selling the bulk of their commercial time for the coming season, about $9 billion worth in all.
The "upfront," as the annual advance sales season is known, is a bizarre yet entrenched ritual. Networks court advertisers and the media while knocking their rivals.
"This week is kind of a silly week," McPherson admitted, minutes before he took a jab at rival NBC Universal for its announcement Monday of a spinoff of "The Apprentice" starring lifestyle celebrity Martha Stewart.
"I was a little surprised to see another 'Apprentice'," said McPherson (see correction).
All over the map
Because so many factors play into the "upfront," as the annual ad sales season is known, estimates on the size of this year's market vary widely. Some industry experts are predicting the dollars sold will be less than a year ago, while others predict a slight increase from 2004.
About the only thing the experts agree on: Next to ratings leader CBS, ABC stands to benefit the most from this year's upfront.
Goldman Sachs predicted last week that ABC will see its upfront take increase 10 percent, to $1.76 billion, even as total upfront sales at the four major broadcast networks decline an estimated 5 percent, to $8.1 billion.
CIBC World Markets is forecasting an even more robust upfront for ABC, with ad sales growing 18 percent to $1.9 billion, not counting the expected ad bonanza from ABC's scheduled broadcast of the Super Bowl next year. CIBC, meanwhile, estimates that total upfront sales will increase 2 percent, to $8.6 billion, from a year ago.
It's a dramatic turnaround for ABC, long the industry laggard. But following a management shakeup at the network and a handful of surprise hits like "Desperate Housewives" this season, ABC ratings have grown up 10 percent from last year, with ratings up 14 percent among the young adult viewers prized by advertisers.
While ABC still ranks No. 3 among total viewers and 18-49 year-olds, it's the only network to post big gains so far this season. CBS, owned by Viacom (down $0.22 to $34.00, Research), is essentially flat year-over-year, while NBC and Fox are both down. NBC is a General Electric (Research) unit, while News Corp. (Research) controls Fox.
ABC has "righted the ship," said Brad Adgate, the senior vice-president of corporate research at New York's Horizon Media. "This is the first year since the [late 1990s] heyday of 'Who Wants To Be A Millionaire' that you're not really concerned about ABC."
A big score for ABC during this year's upfront will likely give Walt Disney Co., the world's No. 2 media company and the parent of ABC, a big boost. Incoming Disney (Research) CEO Robert Iger, a veteran ABC executive who will take over from outgoing CEO Michael Eisner in September, told analysts last week that the network "will likely be profitable in '05."
Iger said the only thing that can stop ABC now is the "unforeseen -- a significant downturn in the (advertising) market."
Winning is relative
Still, for all its success, ABC isn't immune to the television industry's general woes.
Network ratings have steadily declined in recent years as consumers migrate to other forms of entertainment, including cable television, the Internet and video games.
Other threats to network television: the growing popularity of ad-skipping technologies like digital video recorders and problems facing key sources of advertising dollars, among them the automotive, airline and pharmaceutical industries.
Goldman Sachs, in its upfront analysis, said that signs of a weakening economy could hurt networks too. Networks try to sell 80 percent of their commercial time in the upfront, and save the remainder for sale closer to airtime in what is known as the "scatter" market. Scatter market prices tend to fluctuate based on various factors, including a show's ratings and the overall state of the economy.
Signs that a weakening U.S. economy could hold inflation in check as well as soft scatter prices in the current TV season could mean some advertisers will resist buying spots in the upfront.
Given all of the unknown factors, analysts have long predicted that upfront sales, which have risen roughly 30 percent in the last five years, will fall precipitously at some point.
Adgate, for one, doesn't see it happening anytime soon. Broadcast television, he notes, still delivers the biggest audiences of any form of entertainment.
"There are a lot of options out there that advertisers now have besides the 30-second commercial on network television," said Adgate. "I don't think it's going to reach the tipping point" for broadcasters.
For other Fortune 500 companies in the news, click here.
Correction: An earlier version gave an incorrect title for McPherson. He is president of ABC Primetime Entertainment. Anne Sweeney is the head of ABC. CNN/Money regrets the error.
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