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Jittery before the Fed
Worries about what the central bank might say Thursday about interest rates keep stocks mixed.
June 29, 2005: 6:09 PM EDT
By Alexandra Twin, CNN/Money Staff Writer
INVESTOR RESEARCH CENTER INVESTOR RESEARCH CENTER upgrades & downgrades earnings & warnings public offerings INVESTOR RESEARCH CENTER INVESTOR RESEARCH CENTER

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Blue chips slipped and the broader market stalled Wednesday as investors flat out refused to budge ahead of the Federal Reserve's much-anticipated statement Thursday afternoon.

Nasdaq and S&P futures pointed to a mixed open Thursday, when fair value is taken into account.

The Dow Jones industrial average (down 31.15 to 10,374.48, Charts) slipped 0.3 percent and the broader Standard & Poor's 500 (down 1.72 to 1,199.85, Charts) lost around 0.1 percent.

The Nasdaq composite (down 1.00 to 2,068.89, Charts) ended little changed.

Oil prices slumped for the second session, losing 1.6 percent after a strong read on weekly oil inventories. Crude closed at a record high of $60.54 Monday.

Tech bellwether Oracle and Dow component AIG both reported quarterly earnings that exceeded estimates. That gave a boost to those specific stocks but failed to move the broader market, with investors wary ahead of Thursday's news from the Fed.

The central bank ends its two-day policy meeting Thursday, and another quarter-point rate hike is widely expected. A rate hike would be the ninth in a row, bringing the Fed funds rate, an overnight bank lending rate, to 3.25 percent.

What's more in question is what the Fed statement implies about future rate hikes. A recent spate of mild economic news -- paired with signs that inflation remains contained -- has led some on Wall Street to conclude that the Fed is likely near a pause in its rate-hike campaign, perhaps following the August meeting.

"I don't think they are going to be able to get away with a quarter-point hike and the same language in the statement," said John Hughes, market analyst at Shields & Co.

"The perception is that we should be getting near the end, and if the language doesn't reflect that, it could upset investors," he added.

Thursday morning trading will likely be dictated by oil prices, and also the economic reports, including reads on personal income and spending and manufacturing in the Midwest.

May income is expected to have risen 0.3 percent after rising 0.7 percent in April. May spending is expected to have risen 0.1 percent after rising 0.6 percent in April.

The spending component's key inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, is expected to have risen 0.1 percent after rising at the same pace in April.

The Chicago PMI, due shortly after the start of trading, is expected to have inched down to 54.0 in June versus 54.1 in May, analysts forecast.

Wednesday's market

U.S. light crude oil for August delivery fell 94 cents to settle at $57.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude hit an all-time closing high of $60.54 on Monday, holding stocks in check; a 4 percent tumble in oil prices led to a stock market rally Tuesday.

Oracle (up $0.74 to $13.57, Research), one of the largest software makers, reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and sales that rose from a year ago and beat forecasts and issued guidance in line or above the Street's estimates for the current quarter and fiscal 2006. The stock jumped about 5.8 percent.

Troubled insurer AIG (up $3.31 to $58.48, Research) rallied 6 percent after posting improved quarterly results late Tuesday. The company, a Dow component, is facing lawsuits and regulatory probes for overstating earnings over a five-year period.

But not all the earnings news was so positive.

Shares of General Mills (down $3.40 to $47.21, Research) -- which makes Cheerios and other foods -- slipped after reporting weaker-than-expected quarterly earnings.

Symbol Technologies (down $0.75 to $9.72, Research) slipped after warning late Tuesday that second-quarter earnings and revenue forecasts will miss expectations due to weakness in the global retail market. The maker of bar-code scanning devices also announced job cuts and said it will take a charge related to the layoffs.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by more than nine to seven on volume of 1.35 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers narrowly edged out decliners on volume of 1.68 billion shares.

Investors also welcomed a higher-than-expected revision to first-quarter gross domestic product growth.

GDP grew at a 3.8 percent annual rate in the quarter, revised up from earlier reads. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought GDP would grow at a 3.7 percent rate.

Treasury bonds gave up early gains to trade lower, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.98 percent from 3.97 percent late Tuesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

In currency trading, the dollar was mixed, gaining versus the yen but slipping against the euro.

COMEX gold reversed ground and rose 90 cents to $438.60 an ounce.  Top of page

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