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Drug makers: Take two and run away
Strong 2Q earnings projected for Schering-Plough, but bad news expected for Bristol.
July 19, 2005: 11:30 AM EDT
By Aaron Smith, CNN/Money staff writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If you're hoping for some good results from the drug sector this week, take an aspirin. With two exceptions, the Street expects the earnings pain among drug makers to continue.

"We expect top line results to be anemic, with the exception of Schering (down $0.02 to $20.03, Research) and Wyeth (up $0.02 to $45.18, Research)," wrote Deutsche Bank North America analyst Barbara Ryan in a note to investors.

This is a showcase week for drug maker results. Besides Schering and Wyeth, Merck, in the midst of a Vioxx controversy, is also expected to announce second quarter earnings. In addition, there will be reports from Pfizer Inc. (up $0.06 to $27.31, Research) and Eli Lilly & Co. (up $0.16 to $56.96, Research), which have garnered mixed expectations. The most dismal projections go to Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (up $0.01 to $25.14, Research), scheduled to announce second quarter earnings next week.

The winners?

The consensus among analysts points to Schering-Plough, a Kenilworth, N.J. drug maker with $8.3 billion in 2004 sales, as the brightest beacon in the drug sector, with a projected 12 percent revenue jump and an earnings per share surge of 161 percent, year-to-year.

"The only company which is a clear growth vehicle in our view is Schering-Plough," said Ryan.

Excluding Schering-Plough, drug makers' average earnings per share is expected to drop 4 percent for the second quarter, according to projections from David Moskowitz, analyst for Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co.

In his report, Moskowitz said that Schering-Plough's performance has been boosted by sales of Vytorin, a combination of the company's cholesterol inhibitor Zetia and Merck's statin drug Zocor.

"Management's turnaround strategy for Schering-Plough appears to be taking shape, with the Vytorin launch ramp continuing to perform very well," wrote Moskowitz.

Wyeth, of Madison, N.J. with $12.4 billion in 2004 sales, is also expected to do well for the second quarter, with analysts hoping for a 9 percent jump in revenue and a 12 percent surge in earnings per share growth.

"By raising full year earnings guidance ahead of second quarter results, Wyeth once again inspired confidence that near-term performance expectations remain reasonable," wrote Chris Shibutani, analyst for J.P. Morgan, in a report to his clients.

Shibutani called Wyeth a "safe haven" and said it is his "favorite name" in the drug industry. On June 27, Wyeth raised its full year 2005 guidance to $2.80 to $2.90 diluted earnings per share.

The plagued pack

But other drug makers are expected to suffer. Merck, which faces thousands of lawsuits after withdrawing its arthritis painkiller Vioxx last year because of health concerns, is expected by analysts to drop 9 percent in revenue and 21 percent in earnings per share.

Pfizer, too, is expected to feel some earnings pain. The world's biggest drug maker has been hampered by the loss of Bextra, lower Celebrex sales, generic competition and a "disappointing new product flow," wrote Ryan. But the analyst rates Pfizer a "buy" because its resilience and sheer market size has buffered its problems.

Shibutani wrote that Merck and Pfizer's earnings are hampered by "inflammatory headlines" regarding its blockbusters Vioxx and Lipitor. Merck faces more than 2,300 lawsuits over Vioxx, which the company withdrew on Sept. 30, 2004 after tests showed that the drug increased the chance of heart attacks and stroke. Beginning on July 11, Merck faced the first of the Vioxx plaintiffs in a Texas courtroom. As for Lipitor, the world's top-selling drug at $10.8 billion in 2004 sales, Pfizer's patent is being challenged this week in a British courtroom by Indian generic drug maker Ranbaxy Laboratories (up $0.34 to $24.16, Research).

"In our view, Pfizer is in fact defensive and has demonstrated that it can weather the blows in a measured fashion due to its dramatic scale advantage and strong balance sheet," wrote Ryan.

Some of the most dismal projections in the lot go to Bristol-Myers. On average analysts project a 12 percent revenue drop for Bristol, with a 22 percent plunge in earnings per share.

Analysts say that Bristol's poor performance for the quarter stems from declining Pravachol sales, combined with generic pressures to Paraplatin and Taxol, cancer treatments used with chemotherapy, and Glucophage, a diabetes treatment.

According to Moskowitz, Pravachol prescription volumes plunged 17.6 percent in the second quarter, compared to a rise of 9.8 percent in the overall cholesterol-reducer market, because of eroding sales due to patent loss.

Johnson & Johnson (up $0.13 to $64.73, Research) reported on Tuesday that its second-quarter profit rose 9 percent, as demand for its medical devices and consumer products outpaced drug sales.

Analysts interviewed for this story do not own stock in the companies mentioned here. J.P. Morgan has conducted business with all of the drug companies in this story. Deutsche Bank and Friedman, Billings, Ramsey may have done business with some of these companies.  Top of page

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