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Summer stocks: hot on chips, retailers
Teen retailers and semiconductors may shine in an otherwise dull summer market
July 27, 2005: 6:30 PM EDT
By Shaheen Pasha, CNN/Money staff writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - For investors, the month of August generally involves chasing Frisbees rather than chasing the latest hot stock trend.

But one late summer trend is worth remembering while lazily considering portfolios over a cool glass of lemonade: back-to-school season is just around the corner.

That spells opportunity in sectors such as semiconductors and teen retail, which analysts expect to show some life in an otherwise lackluster trading environment.

Technology stocks are generally appealing ahead of their seasonally strong fourth quarter, said Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. This year, there's even more buzz around the semiconductor industry as parents and kids alike look for the coolest new gadgets for their cell phones, laptops and personal computers.

"We generally have had a good feeling going into the third and fourth quarters because the economy is doing better than expected," said Cody Acree, managing director at Legg Mason Wood Walker. "Semiconductors are going to get a boost from seasonal trends."

Moreover, industry inventories are thin right now while demand is strong.

Acree thinks that Texas Instruments (Research) – the world's biggest maker of mobile phone chips – and tech giants such asIntel Corp. (Research) and Advanced Micro Devices (Research) -- major players in computer notebooks and PC -- should be among the winners as summer comes to an end.

Incidentally, all three of those chipmakers recently reported strong second quarter earnings and are poised to continue to show growth through the second half, making them attractive bets in the near-term.

Analysts expect Texas Instruments to show year-over-year earnings growth of 7 percent in the third quarter and 25 percent in the fourth quarter. TI's second quarter earnings grew to $628 million, or 38 cents per diluted share, compared with the year-earlier quarter's profit of $441 million, or 25 cents.

Intel, likewise, is expected to show year-over-year strong earnings expansion. Consensus estimates call for 22 percent and 28 percent growth, for the third and fourth quarters, respectively. Intel reported second quarter earnings of 33 cents a share, up 22 percent from a year ago.

Retail investors

While technology should definitely be on investors' radar, many market watchers are also bullish about retailers, which have been on a winning streak in recent months. The Standard & Poor's Retail Index is up 10.8% over the last two months compared to a 3.5% gain on the S&P 500 Index.

Industry observers expect teen retailers to show strength in August courtesy of one fashion staple: denim.

"We are entering into a big denim cycle and it's the most important for the back-to-school and teen sectors," said Dan Hess, chief executive of Merchant Forecast, an independent research group for the retail industry. "The floors are loaded with denim and we expect it be a big area in focus through the end of summer."

Hess said companies like Abercrombie & Fitch (Research) and American Eagle Outfitters (Research) are poised for particular strength.

"Customers are responding well to their fashion-heavy denim assortments," he said.

That should spark some investor interest in August, analysts say. But longer term, economic growth is still a concern, according to Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at Spencer Clarke LLC.

"Despite terrorist events around the world, rising oil prices and a lukewarm job market, consumer spending has remained fairly strong, much better than many would have thought," Sheldon said. "But if the economic data starts to slow and oil rises above $60 a barrel, that could eat into consumer spending."

In that case, investors may opt for more defensive plays such as healthcare, consumer staples and utilities, he said. For now, though, the outlook on the economy remains fairly bullish.

While August isn't expected to be a blow-out month for the stock market by any means, those with an itch to trade should find some relief in the technology and retail sectors.

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Find out more about recent strength in retail stocks:

A midsummer's sales dream for retailers

Back-to-school so soon?

For a look at today's stock market action, click here  Top of page

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