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Of oil and bonds and bulls and bears
Surging oil prices and rising bond yields may herald a softer economy ahead.
August 1, 2005: 8:32 AM EDT

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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Oil is on the move again and so are U.S. bonds, on a morning where it's good to be a bull in the former market and a bear in the latter.

News of King Fahd's death on the heels of BP shutting down a big Texas refinery for maintenance -- and that after two big refinery fires last week -- means there's one way for crude oil futures to go right now and that's higher. Isn't it interesting how quickly sticker shock wears off, how $50 a barrel seems low, and $70 a barrel is perhaps just around the corner?

After Friday's second quarter GDP report showed U.S. consumers are still spending at a respectable pace and businesses are making new investments it's hard to argue that oil and gas prices at current levels have done much to hurt growth. On the radio this morning I heard about a New Jersey survey which showed that high gasoline is causing people to alter vacation plans and consider more fuel efficient vehicles.

That's it?

Clearly gas has not taken much of a bite yet and that's one reason why the door is open to even higher prices. And that's another reason for U.S. bond yields to be rising and bond prices to be falling.

It's true that inflation still looks very tame by many measures. But the fact that the economy is still growing as fast as it is ... coupled with China's move to shift its currency policy toward one that could ultimately mean the Chinese purchase fewer U.S. bonds ... coupled with the Fed still intent on raising short-term rates ... ALL means it's tougher for bond yields to stay as amazingly low as they have over the past year.

Oil bulls and bond bears rule the roost today. If the oil bulls keep at it though they may pave the way for a softer economy and lower oil prices, giving their bearish oil brethren and bullish bond cousins a break.

_______________________________

-- Kathleen Hays is economics correspondent for CNN and contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight. You can read more of her columns here.  Top of page

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