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A cliffhanger for the Street?
For the first time in a year, Tuesday's Federal Reserve policy meeting could surprise investors.
September 19, 2005: 4:22 PM EDT
By Alexandra Twin, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Wall Streeters return from the weekend to face something they haven't in quite a well: a Fed policy meeting that holds some suspense.

The suspense is partly about whether Alan Greenspan and the other central bankers will decide to raise rates at the conclusion of Tuesday's policy-setting meeting or take a pause, but mostly about whether they hint that a pause is on tap at the meeting that follows.

John Davidson, president and CEO of money manager PartnerRe Asset Management said it is not likely that the Fed will pause at this meeting However, it may change the wording of the statement to indicate it will be more dependent on data going forward and that it could pause if the after effects of Katrina on the economy are worse than has been anticipated.

"In recent years, the Fed has made a real attempt to be transparent," Davidson added. "If they are going to change direction, they are going to signal it first."

That may be disappointing to some market participants, who have been hoping that the Fed may pause. Such hopes were partly responsible for a two-week stock rally that petered out only last week.

Fed still likely to raise rates

The economic fallout of Hurricane Katrina notwithstanding, expectations remain for the Fed to boost rates this week by a quarter-percentage point, the 11th such move in a row. (For more on the upcoming Fed decision, click here.)

Such a move would set the Fed funds rate, an overnight bank lending rate, at 3.75 percent, still below the 4.0 percent or 4.25 percent that some economists say represents a "neutral" rate.

However, there is also the small possibility that the Fed would opt to pause at this week's meeting, obstensibly to ameliorate the impact of Hurricane Katrina.

While the hurricane's long-term impact on gross domestic product growth (GDP) is in question -- some say it will only hurt short term, but be stimulative to GDP long term -- there's no question it's had a negative impact on the psychology of stock participants.

However, a pause in the rate-hiking campaign next week seems less likely than another hike.

"Fed officials have given no indication that they will pause at this meeting," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services. "But they may indicate in the statement that they are preparing to pause at the November meeting."

Chicago Fed president Michael Moskow, speaking last week after the devastation of the hurricane, implied that the Fed must continue raising rates so as to counteract the increased risk of inflation, from both rising energy prices and other stimulative factors.

Just last week, the Bush Administration announced massive rebuilding plan for the Gulf Coast following the hurricane. This undertaking is estimated to pump somewhere in the area of $200 billion into the economy. However, it may also mean a sharp rise in the budget deficit, interest rates, and inflationary pressure. (For more on this dilemma, click here.)

The stock market has clearly started to worry about inflation, what with investors rushing to pour money into gold and other safe-haven sectors.

All of which makes what the Fed says about the economy this all the more relevant to stock investors.

Although don't look to the immediate market reaction for an indication.

"It's almost like a lose-lose situation for stocks, because if the Fed pauses now, that could cause worries that the Katrina impact is worse than we think," said John Hughes, market analyst at Shields & Co. "But if they don't pause, investor worries about inflation may increase."

Other key events in the week ahead

  • Nike (Research) reports quarterly earnings Monday morning. The sneaker and clothing retailer is expected to have earned $1.42 per share, according to Reuters forecasts, up from $1.21 a year ago.
  • Circuit City (Research), due to report results Tuesday, is forecast to have lost 3 cents per share after losing 6 cents per share a year ago.
  • Goldman Sachs (Research), reporting Tuesday, is expected to have earned $2.28 per share, up from $1.74 a year ago. Fellow brokerage Morgan Stanley (Research) is expected to report earnings of $1.05 per share Wednesday, up from 78 cents a year ago.
  • Also Wednesday, FedEx is expected to report earnings. The package delivery carrier is expected to have earned $1.18 per share, up from $1.08 a year ago.
  • Homebuilder KB Home (Research), due to report Thursday is expected to have earned $2.37 per share, up from $1.42 a year ago.
  • Oracle, due to report Thursday, is expected to have earned 14 cents per share, versus 10 cents a year ago.
  • Two reads on the housing market are due Tuesday. Housing starts are expected to have risen to a 2.05 million unit annual rate in August from a 2.030 million unit annual rate in July. Building permits are expected to have fallen to a 2.1 million unit annual rate in the month, from a 2.137 million unit annual rate in July.
  • The August read on leading economic indicators is due Thursday. LEI is expected to have fallen 0.3 percent, matching the decline it posted in July.
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