NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Will consumers, not wanting to use $3 a gallon gas to get to the mall, shop online this holiday season instead?

Most industry analysts say e-tailers shouldn't expect record-breaking sales this holiday season. Their concerns are anchored on the impact -- both real and psychological -- of rising gasoline prices on consumers.

Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry analyst with market research firm NPD Group, isn't among the naysayers. In fact, he anticipates benefits to e-tailers from the ongoing gas price inflation.

"Consumers who hesitated in the past to shop online will be more eager this year because they wouldn't want to to drive long distance to malls or from store to store," Cohen said.

Other analysts are less optimistic.

"Online sales are unlikely to benefit from problems with gas prices," according to Carrie Johnson, principal analyst with Forrester Research.

The profile of an online shopper has become increasingly similar to a mainsteam shopper, Johnson explained.

Said Johnson, "So if gas prices are eating into consumers' overall discretionary spending, why will they shop less in brick-and mortar stores but not cut back on their online purchases?"

She expects to release her online holiday sales forecast next month. "I think online holiday sales will increase in the 15 percent range, which is still quite strong compared to the offline channel."

According to market research firm ComScore Networks, online sales during the key November-December shopping period last year rose 29 percent to $15.8 billion.

By contrast, overall holiday retail sales rose 5.7 percent last year, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). However, online retailer still represent a fairly small percentage -- about 2 percent -- of the total $4 trillion in U.S. retail sales.

Said Johnson, "Online retailing still is experiencing organic growth as more people migrate to the Web but the industry is maturing. And without extra disposable income, growth won't reach the 40 to 50 percent level."

Patti Freeman Evans, an analyst with Jupiter Research, says e-merchants aren't immune to the effect of escalating fuel prices on the cost of running their business.

"We don't yet have data specifically to quantify this but it's fair to say that online retailing is hit by fuel costs because these companies ship every product to their customers," Evans said.

In other words, shipping companies used by e-commerce companies are passing along gas price increases.

Retailers will also be paying higher utility bills. While e-tailers may not operate as many "stores" as brick-and-mortar merchants, they do have to pay for lighting and heating in their distribution centers, Evans said.

Could online merchants try to pass along some of the added costs to consumers this year by skimping on incentives such as "free shipping?"

Both Johnson and Evans think that's highly unlikely.

"The biggest deterrent to online shopping other than concerns about security of personal information is shipping costs," Evans said. "

According to Johnson, the fact that e-tailers enjoy bigger profit margins compared to their offline counterparts also gives them more wiggle room during periods of higher energy costs.

Said Johnson, "My hunch is that the online and offline merchants will aggressively compete this year over pricing."

Dan Hess, senior vice president with ComScore Networks, agrees that online sellers won't curb their "free shipping" programs in the months ahead. Instead, they could up the conditions placed on the free shipping offer.

"Earlier, consumers could get free shipping if they spent $100. That could now go up to $150," Hess said.