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Relief rally on Wall Street? Maybe
Where Rita went will help set the course for stocks but a mild hit from the storm seems built in.
September 25, 2005: 10:14 PM EDT
By Alexandra Twin, CNN/Money staff writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - So goes the storm, so goes the stock market.

Wall Streeters returning to work Monday morning will be preoccupied with one issue: where Rita made landfall and how much the storm damaged oil and gas facilities and other industries in the Gulf.

But beyond the knee-jerk reaction to the storm's path and its aftermath, analysts say, investors will be trying to assess the impact on the economy and inflation.

"The damage from the storm, both in terms of the physical damage and any human impact, was certainly less than expected so that should really bode well for the financial markets," Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Asset Management in Bedford Hills, N.Y., told Reuters after the storm hit over the weekend.

But some analysts disagreed.

"The stock reaction over the next few weeks is likely to be fairly neutral, with a lot of the damage already factored into prices," Stephen Leeb, president of Leeb Capital Management, said Friday.

Investors were already betting late last week that Rita's impact would be less damaging than Katrina's. While stocks fell for the week, they stabilized Thursday and Friday as oil prices tumbled on news that Rita had lost some steam. Oil fell further in special trading sessions Sunday. (Full story).

"The market seems to be betting that the storm won't have a long-term impact, but that really depends on how much the storm disrupts the oil infrastructure, something we may not know for weeks," Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital, said late Friday.

Two major refineries reported damage from Rita Saturday, but Texas Gov. Rick Perry said overall damage to oil facilities appeared to be modest and Energy Department officials also expressed cautious optimism. (Full story).

"Hopefully they'll be back in production very soon," Perry said in an interview on CNN.

Longer-term impact?

Studies from Ned Davis Research and Standard & Poor's show the hurricanes are likely to hurt economic growth in the third and possibly fourth quarter but not necessarily beyond, as the rebuilding effort brings in new money and new business -- including considerable spending by the federal government.

But the impact could potentially be worse than past hurricanes would suggest. (Full story).

At the very least, the rebuilding should be a positive for the economy down the line, analysts argue, although that could mean a pickup in inflation and higher interest rates.

"It's a mixed bag," Leeb said. "There's no question that the economy is likely to be hurt temporarily, but on the other hand, the storm could have been even worse. We're likely to see a near-term slowdown, (and a) longer-term pick up in economic activity with a slight increase in inflation," he added.

Of interest rates and inflation

Investors will also be looking for hints about how the storm's aftermath might impact Federal Reserve policy going forward

Last week, the Fed raised interest rates another quarter point to 3.75 percent, as many expected, but surprised some investors by signaling it was likely to keep raising rates for some time -- a sign the central bank's policy makers are more worried about inflation than any risks to growth. (Full story).

This week brings two speeches from Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, a former Fed governor who heads President Bush's Council of Economic Advisors. Investors will be listening closely to see if the policy makers have changed their rhetoric at all after Rita hit over the weekend.

Beyond the storm

Other factors that investors will keep an eye on next week include a slew of economic reports, a smattering of earnings, the weekly oil inventory report on Wednesday, and some end-of-quarter moves as September draws to a close.

Economic reports next week include reads on home sales, durable goods orders and personal income and spending. Most of the reports cover the period before Hurricane Katrina made landfall in late August. However, a few September reads are on tap, including the Conference Board's survey of consumer confidence. (For a preview of these reports, click here.)

Although the earnings reporting period won't heat up in earnest for a few weeks, Lennar, Micron and a few other companies are set to report. (For a preview, click here).

Friday marks the last trading day of September and the third quarter. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the last week of September is typically tough for investors as money managers and other Wall Street professionals make last minute adjustments to their portfolios.

Key events in the week ahead

  • Monday brings the August read on existing home sales. Sales are expected to have fallen to a 7.11 million unit annual rate in the month, according to economists surveyed by Briefing.com, from a 7.16 million unit annual rate in July.
  • On Tuesday, the new home sales read is expected to show a fall to a 1.35 million unit annual rate in August from a 1.41 million unit rate in July.
  • The Conference Board releases its September Consumer Confidence index Tuesday. The index is expected to have fallen to 94.3 from 105.6 in August, reflecting the impact of the two storms.
  • Wednesday bring the August read on durable goods orders. Orders are expected to have risen 0.8 percent after falling 4.9 percent in July.
  • The final read on gross domestic product growth in the second quarter is due Thursday. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect no change from the previous read of 3.3 percent.
  • On Friday, August personal income and spending reports are on tap. Income is expected to have risen 0.3 percent after rising 0.3 percent in July; spending is expected to have fallen 0.2 percent after rising 1 percent in July.
  • The next September read on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, due Friday, is expected to be revised up to 78.0 from an initial read of 76.9.
  • The Chicago PMI, a read on manufacturing in the Midwest region, is due Friday as well. The index is expected to have risen to 51.5 in September from 49.2 in August.

Earnings to watch

  • Lennar (Research) is expected to report earnings Tuesday of $2.02 per share, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by Reuters. The homebuilder earned $1.36 per share a year ago.
  • Research in Motion (up $2.08 to $78.66, Research) is expected to post earnings Wednesday morning of 61 cents per share, up from 45 cents a year ago.
  • PepsiCo (Research) issues its quarterly report Thursday morning and is expected to have earned 73 cents per share, versus 66 cents a year ago.
  • Micron Technology (Research), which reports earnings Thursday afternoon, is expected to post a loss of 8 cents per share, analysts say, versus a profit of 14 cents per share a year ago.
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