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New month, same worries?
Stock investors return to work Monday to face a new month and new quarter -- and many old worries.
October 2, 2005: 6:57 AM EDT
By Alexandra Twin, CNN/Money staff writer
Should investors be worried about what October may bring?
Should investors be worried about what October may bring?
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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Stocks managed to pull through September and the third quarter mostly unscathed on bets that the economy can handle the damage from higher energy prices and two massive hurricanes.

Next week could go a long way toward showing whether those bets were correct, or overly optimistic, with September reads due on manufacturing, auto and truck sales, and most notably, employment.

"Stock investors have concluded that the economy was in good shape before Hurricane's Katrina and Rita, and that it has come through the storms in reasonably good shape, with the exception of oil," said James Awad, chairman at Awad Asset Management.

"The major investment issue that has legs in the aftermath of the hurricanes is energy and its implications for corporate profits," Awad added.

In the shorter run, investors will likely spend next week focused on Friday's September jobs number, which is expected to show a sharp decline in payrolls for the first time in a long while.

The payrolls number is going to be really distorted because of the hurricanes, so the main issue next week will be how investors react to that number, said Donald Selkin, director of research at Joseph Stevens.

3Q managed a stealth advance

The third quarter ended last week with sturdy gains, as a rally in July and the last week of September offset a difficult middle section.

For the three month period, the Nasdaq jumped 4.6 percent, the S&P 500 gained 3.2 percent and the Dow industrials climbed nearly 2.9 percent.

The gains were a bit better than unusual for the third quarter, and reflected the market's resilience, analysts said, considering what investors had to face. Among the challenges: the two hurricanes, a surge in oil prices and two interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

"The market has a lot of headwinds it's up against, yet it's still hanging in there," Selkin added.

"For the year, the three major indexes aren't doing much, but considering the period we're in, the fact that the market has done all right is surprising," Selkin added, referring to the fact that September is traditionally the worst month of the year for all three indexes.

That resilience could continue to benefit stocks during the early part of October.

For a look at how the market did last week and in September, click here.

For a look at 3Q winners and losers, and a preview of the fourth quarter, click here.

Key events in the week ahead

  • The read on August construction spending is due Monday. Spending is expected to have risen 0.4 percent in the month, following a flat reading in July.
  • The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, also due Monday, is expected to have fallen to 52.0 in September from 53.6.
  • August factory orders, due Tuesday, are expected to have risen 1.2 percent in the month after falling 1.9 percent last month.
  • The Institute for Supply Management's read on the services sector of the economy is due Wednesday. The index is expected to have fallen to 59.7 from 65.0 in August.
  • Friday brings the key September jobs report. The closely-watched payrolls number is expected to show a loss of 172,000 jobs, due to the impact of Hurricane's Katrina and Rita. Employers added 169,000 to their payrolls in August. The unemployment report, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have risen to a 5.0 percent rate from a 4.9 percent rate in August.
  • Friday also brings the August read on wholesale inventories, expected to show a rise of 0.4 percent in the month. Inventories fell 0.1 percent in July.
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