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Waiting on the Fed heads
When the central bank honchos speak today, you'll hear "more hikes" between the lines.
October 4, 2005: 8:28 AM EDT

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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Muchos Fed speakers today, and it's not too hard to guess what they are going to say.

First, the broader national economy has not sustained damage from the devastation of the hurricanes. As evidence they can cite yesterday's surprisingly strong reading on manufacturing in the September ISM index.

Second, with that as the bedrock of their outlook, the bigger risk to the economy is an energy-led rise in inflation. And again they can point to the ISM where "prices paid" leaped higher.

Third, the conclusion, more rate hikes ahead.

That's basically what Atlanta Fed president Jack Guynn told Reuters: "We're now at a point where we have removed a substantial amount of the extraordinary accommodation that was in place when we started this cycle. I still feel that we have a ways to go. We're well along on that path."

It will be very interesting to see if and how today's speakers address the question of consumers -- especially at the low- and middle-income tiers -- and how they are affected by high gas prices. We know the savings rate is negative; could it be in part because gas costs so much more?

True, Wal-Mart sales were pretty decent last month. But part of that was the higher price of gas and aren't people flocking to Wal-Mart for gas because it's cheaper?

Let's see what the Fed folk say. When it comes to rates it's the only opinion that counts.

____________________________

Kathleen Hays is economics correspondent for CNN. Read more of her columns here.  Top of page

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