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Earnings set to pour
Inflation concerns share the stage with earnings this week, with 1/4 of the S&P 500 set to report.
October 15, 2005: 9:15 PM EDT
By Alexandra Twin, CNN/Money staff writer
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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Roughly 25 percent of the S&P 500 reports quarterly earnings this week, giving an inflation-focused market something new to dissect.

The 126 S&P 500 components that are due include a variety of sectors, with the notable exception of energy stocks -- most of which report earnings the following week. The reports are big on big blue chips, including half of the Dow 30.

A slew of banks are up at bat, including Citigroup, Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase. GM and Ford are both due, as are tech leaders IBM, Intel, Google and Yahoo!. (For a look at these and other reports due next week, click here.)

Currently, earnings are expected to have risen 15.6 percent in the quarter, according to research firm Thomson Financial/First Call; the number is a blended figure, combining both reported and expected earnings. Because companies tend to promise conservatively, reported earnings tend to surpass forecasts. Thomson expects that when all is said and done, earnings will probably rise 17 percent in the third quarter.

That would represent a modest improvement over the first and second quarters of this year, when S&P 500 earnings rose 13.9 percent and 11.7 percent, respectively.

While it's a bit early to discern the trends, so far, financial companies have led the list of sectors lowering their earnings forecasts, said John Butters, a senior research analyst at Thomson.

On the other end of the spectrum, energy has led the list of sectors boosting forecasts. "No surprise there, with the run up in energy prices," Butters said.

On July 1, energy sector earnings were expected to rise 21 percent, Butters added. As of Friday, that number jumped to 70 percent.

The downside to higher energy prices is likely to be felt throughout a variety of other sectors. Yet, so far, it is the materials sector that has felt it the worst. The sector's earnings are expected to fall 12 percent from a year ago, with steel, aluminum and chemical issues suffering amid the higher costs.

Dow Chemical, U.S. Steel, Alcoa and DuPont have all already alluded to this impact on their quarters.

October can be scary

Halloween notwithstanding, October tends to be a rough month for stocks, and so far, this one has been no exception.

As of Friday, the Dow has fallen 2.7 percent, the Nasdaq 4 percent and the S&P 500 3.4 percent. The declines have coincided with a mix of worries about the economy, the inflation and Federal Reserve policy.

Whether the stock market has bottomed for the time being, as often happens in late October, remains unclear.

What is clear is that the inflationary concerns that have bothered the market are unlikely to be resolved in the week ahead.

A lot of the economic news next week is backward looking, said Timothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management, referring to the bevy of September economic numbers that are on tap.

"The fear that's out there is forward looking, with people worrying about inflation and what the Federal Reserve might do in the months ahead," Ghriskey said. "So the numbers next week won't help, although we do get a lot of earnings, which is good."

"I think there's been a real change in the market in terms of sentiment and in terms of preference for sectors and stocks," he added, noting that the small advance the stock market managed Friday was welcome, but doesn't necessarily signal that a bottom has been put in place.

Earnings to watch

Monday a.m.: Citigroup (Research) is expected to have earned 98 cents per share, according to analysts's forecasts, versus $1.02 a year ago; General Motors (Research) likely lost 74 cents per share after earnings 78 cents per share a year ago.

Monday p.m.: IBM (Research) is expected to have earned $1.13 per share, versus $1.17 per share a year ago.

Tuesday a.m.: 3M (Research) is expected to have earned $1.08 per share, versus 97 cents a year ago; Johnson & Johnson (Research) is expected to have earned 86 cents per share versus 78 cents a year ago; United Technologies (Research) is expected to have earned 79 cents per share, 8 cents more than a year ago.

Tuesday p.m.: Intel (Research) is expected to have earned 34 cents per share, versus 30 cents a year ago; Yahoo! (Research) likely earned 14 cents per share, up from 9 cents a year ago, analysts expect.

Wednesday a.m.:Bank of America (Research) is expected to post earnings of $1.02 per share, versus 91 cents per share a year ago.; JP Morgan Chase (Research) is expected to have earned 72 cents per share versus 60 cents a year ago; McDonald's (Research) is expected to have earned 57 cents per share, versus 61 cents a year ago.

Thursday a.m.: Coca-Cola (Research) is expected to have earned 53 cents per share, 3 cents more than a year ago; Ford Motor (Research) is expected to post a loss of 9 cents per share versus a profit of 28 cents a year ago; Pfizer is expected to have earned 48 cents per share, versus 55 cents a year ago.

Thursday p.m.: Google (Research) is expected to have earned $1.35 per share, up from 45 cents a year ago.

Key economic news

  • Monday bring the NY Empire State index, a regional manufacturing read. The index is expected to have risen to 20.0 in October from 17.0 in September, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.
  • Tuesday bring the September Producer Price index (PPI). PPI is expected to have risen 1.1 percent, according to forecasts, after rising 0.6 percent in August. The so-called "core" PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have risen 0.2 percent after clocking in at unchanged in August.
  • Reads on the housing market are due Wednesday. Housing starts are expected to have fallen to a 1.950 million unit annual rate in September from a 2.009 million unit rate in August. Building permits are expected to have dipped to a 2.05 million unit annualized rate, from a 2.138 million unit rate in August.
  • The weekly oil inventories report and the Fed's "beige book" read on the economy are both due Wednesday as well.
  • Thursday brings the September read on leading economic indicators. LEI probably fell 0.5 percent in the month, according to Wall Street economists, after falling 0.2 percent in August.
  • The Philadelphia Fed index, a counterpart to Monday's NY index, is due Thursday. The Philly Fed probably rose to 10.0 in October, after falling to 2.2 in September.
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