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6 hot picks for 2006
Despite the market's assumptions, real estate won't collapse and GM won't go bankrupt.
December 22, 2005: 11:45 AM EST
By Nelson Schwartz, FORTUNE Europe editor

NEW YORK (FORTUNE) - Here are six sure-fire bets you can bank on in 2006.

Energy stocks remain hot

They won't go through the roof again like they did in 2005, but surging demand from China for oil and a lack of new energy discoveries are two immutable facts that are not about to change. And that makes it safe to bet that names like BP (Research), Chevron (Research) and Shell (Research) will continue to outperform. Surging cash flow should also keep dividends and share repurchases buoyant, so that limits downside.

Real estate won't collapse

Once red-hot markets like Las Vegas might be vulnerable, but in the high-priced corridors of the East Coast and West Coast (you know who you are) don't expect prices to fall substantially. Rising interest rates may keep prices flat, but the lack of new supply and a bumper year for bonuses among high-paid white-collar workers like lawyers, bankers and other business types will keep those McMansions and Park Avenue palaces moving.

Russia rides high

Russia proved to be one of the smartest investments in 2005, with the benchmark RTS index up 98%. The picture remains bright in 2006. Although that doesn't mean the Moscow bourse will double, shares should move higher, much higher as continued high oil prices bring billions of dollars and euros into Russia.

What's more, for better or worse, Western investors are beginning to forget about the Yukos affair, which put a damper on foreign purchases of Russian stocks in 2004 and early 2005. Finally, the loosening of restrictions on foreign ownership of energy giant Gazprom will be a major stimulus for the entire Russian market.

Newspaper stocks bounce back

Right now, newspaper stocks are about as unloved as coal on Christmas morning. Knight-Ridder (Research) has been forced to put itself up for sale by a major institutional shareholder, Dow Jones (Research) is at $36 a share, back where it was in the mid-1990s (it was near $80 in 2000) and the New York Times Co. (Research) is also at multi-year lows. These companies do face big challenges from the growth of the Internet and Google's (Research) success at gathering ad dollars, but the situation isn't hopeless and these franchises remain strong.

Even if the owners don't immediately figure out how to cut costs and make real money on the Net, Wall Street won't be able to resist another look because Wall Street is manic-depressive when it comes to sectors. Once upon a time during the bubble, groups like mining and energy were untouchable. Today, they're white-hot. Media is due for a bounce.

3G really begins to catch on

Like solar power and commercial space flight, it sometimes seems like people have been talking for years about 3G wireless being just around the corner. Every so often, though, one of these talked-about trends does catch fire—see MP3 players, Internet advertising and hybrid cars. This is likely to be the year 3G catches fire, especially in Europe where billions have been invested.

Big winner: Nokia (Research) and other handset manufacturers, which are rolling out 3G phones. Speaking of Nokia, expect rival Research in Motion's (Research) BlackBerry to be under pressure as the Finnish giant rolls out models aimed squarely at BlackBerry's lucrative market.

GM doesn't go bankrupt

Toyota (Research) is poised to overtake GM as the world's biggest carmaker. GM (Research), meanwhile, is shutting plants and desperately trying to cut costs. GM (and No. 2 U.S. automaker Ford (Research)) have serious problems, but like the newspaper industry, it's not the end of civilization as we know it. It's not GM stock that's interesting however, even though it's trading at historic lows. Instead, check out the bonds, which in some cases are yielding more than 10%. This isn't an investment for the risk averse, but it's hard to imagine Washington letting GM collapse, especially in an election year.

Bonus bet

Next year, the Dow will hit 11,600. That's a 7% gain from where it is now. With the economy growing by more than 4%, inflation tame, and the recent series of rate hikes coming to a close, 2006 should be another good, if not spectacular year for investors. You heard it here first—Happy New Year!

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