GM's not so great upgrade
GM shares soar, Dow tops 11K after critical analyst upgrades GM's battered shares to neutral.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer

DETROIT (CNNMoney.com) - Shares of General Motors and the Dow Jones industrial average got an unexpected lift from a basically negative view of the company issued Monday.

An upgrade by Goldman Sachs helped GM's battered shares see one of their best days since last year, and was enough to lift the Dow Jones industrial average above the 11,000 threshold. It came even though the analyst who upgraded GM equated the automaker's long-term outlook to that of a sinking ship, and said his long-term view of the company remained "squarely negative."

GM Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner is tempered in his predictions for gains in U.S. sales in 2006.
GM Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner is tempered in his predictions for gains in U.S. sales in 2006.

Goldman Sachs auto analyst Robert Barry upgraded the stock to "in-line" or essentially a neutral rating, from "underperform" or a negative rating on the stock.

Following the upgrade, and GM executives repeating denials of about plans for bankruptcy, GM shares closed up $1.61, or 7.7 percent, at $22.41.

That gain added 12.88 points to the Dow in Monday trading, just enough to let the benchmark blue chip index manage its first close above 11,000 since June 7, 2001.

It also marked the third best day for GM stock in more than a year, which saw its stock hit a 24-year low in December.

Monday's gain was topped only by an 18 percent gain the day financier Kirk Kerkorian announced a tender offer for GM shares in May, and an 8 percent gain that took place on reports on June 10 that the United Auto Workers union leadership had voted to support talks on health care cost cuts at the automaker.

GM executives have spent the first two days of the North American International Auto Show trying to put the best face possible on the company's problems. Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner pointed out Sunday that the company's global sales rose to more than 9 million vehicles in 2005, it's second best year on record, topped only by 1976.

"When you add it all up, we showed good momentum in most markets except here in the U.S. and we hope to get some momentum going in the U.S. this year," said Wagoner speaking to reporters Sunday.

But he wouldn't go so far as to predict an overall gain in U.S. sales in 2006, even with a number of new vehicle introductions.

"We're sort of starting the year a little bit in the negative column (due to reduced fleet sales)," he said. "We'd like to grow retail share this year. It doesn't necessarily mean total share."

He also wouldn't predict that GM would be able to hold off Toyota Motor Corp., which is closing in on GM's long-held title of the world's No. 1 automaker.

"What we're trying to do is bring out great cars and trucks and just try to sell more of them in the right way, in a profitable way," Wagoner said. "We'd like to keep the leadership position but if we don't do what I just said, we're not going to do that."

Analyst upgrades despite negative view

Goldman's Barry's improved view for the prospects for GM shares was similarly tempered.

Barry wrote in his note to clients that, "Our long-term view of GM fundamentals remains squarely negative, due to severe revenue and cost pressures related to ongoing share loss and onerous labor-related costs."

But he added that with GM shares having lost 50 percent of their value in the last year, the stock had a chance to rebound, especially if it reached an agreement to sell its GMAC credit unit, as it is negotiating to do, and if it reaches an agreement that avoids a threatened strike at its bankrupt former parts unit Delphi.

Barry dismissed the view of some other analysts about the threat of a bankruptcy at GM at some point in the next couple of years.

"Our view (is) that a Chapter 11 (bankruptcy) filing is very unlikely anytime soon, and (with) upcoming catalysts that could improve sentiment and allay bankruptcy fears, we can see GM shares rebounding to the mid-$20 range in the first half of 2006," he wrote in his note.

Still Barry's view of GM's long-term competitive outlook was not great, even though he believes it has the liquidity needed to stay out of bankruptcy court.

"So what are the alternatives for GM if not bankruptcy? We see 'death by a thousand cuts,'" Barry wrote in his note. "We believe that GM's market share will continue to face long term downward pressure, and that market pricing pressure will intensify over time, eroding GM fundamentals further."

GM exec blasts analysts

Even with that negative view of GM's long-term prospects, Barry's view is more positive than some other analysts. Ron Tadross of Banc of America Securities, puts the chance of a GM bankruptcy at 40 percent in the next two years, and sees an eventual bankruptcy filing as "inevitable."

Standard & Poor's analyst Scott Sprinzen said that the chance that GM would file bankruptcy was "not far fetched," when the credit agency recently downgraded GM debt further into junk bond status.

GM executives have repeatedly dismissed suggestions that the company faced the threat of bankruptcy. Monday at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit, Vice Chairman Robert Lutz made one of the most pointed criticisms of that suggestion yet by a GM executive.

Lutz, known for his outspoken comments, told Reuters, "I don't care which junior analyst on Wall Street or two years out of Harvard B-School says -- 'Oh, well, General Motors inevitably headed for bankruptcy' -- Well you know, our view of that is, that's a crock. It's not going to happen.

"You talk about near bankruptcy. I've seen bankruptcy situations. And this ain't one of them," he added.

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For more on CEO Wagoner's views of GM's outlook, click here.

For a look at GM's need to eliminate job guarantees, click here.

For a look at more news and photos from the Detroit auto show, click hereTop of page

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