Choppy day ahead of Fed
Nasdaq composite barely higher, broader market drifts ahead of central bank policy meeting Tuesday.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com staff writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Stock gains fizzled out by the close Monday, as investors eyed a rise in oil prices and Treasury bond yields and geared up for Tuesday's Federal Reserve meeting.

The Dow Jones industrial average (down 7.29 to 10,899.92, Charts) lost a few points, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index (up 1.48 to 1,285.20, Charts) and the Nasdaq composite (up 2.55 to 2,306.78, Charts) both ended a bit higher.

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As of 5:30 p.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures pointed to a flat to lower open for stocks Tuesday, when fair value is taken into account.

The major gauges had swayed in a tight range throughout the session -- as investors welcomed earnings from Exxon and other upbeat corporate news -- but lost momentum near the close.

The persistent uptick in oil prices, combined with concerns about Tuesday's Fed meeting were likely being reflected in Monday's stock market, said Barry Hyman, equity strategist at Ehrenkrantz King Nussbaum.

"Energy up on a day-to-day basis is a factor," Hyman said. "Crude is approaching $70 a barrel and natural gas is up too."

Reports are due later in the week on everything from auto and truck sales to the labor market. Yet of most interest right now is Tuesday's Fed meeting, the last led by Chairman Alan Greenspan. The central bank is widely expected to boost the Fed funds rate, a short-term overnight bank lending rate, by a quarter-percentage point to 4.5 percent.

This would mark the 14th consecutive rate hike since June 2004. Of greater interest will be what the Fed says in the statement, specifically if it hints that the rate-hiking campaign is nearly over, something the stock market has been betting on of late. (Full Story.)

However, some analysts say investors could be disappointed. Despite Friday's weak reading of GDP growth, many of the recent economic data have been upbeat, leading Fed watchers to say that the central bank may not be ready to pause just yet.

Should the Fed signal that, stocks could suffer a hiccup tomorrow.

"I think people are looking forward to the end of rate hikes and if there's no dramatic change in the wording of the statement tomorrow, that could hurt the market," Hyman added.

However, regardless of that, the market may be due for a pullback anyway.

"I think we're a bit overbought right now and we may need to consolidate," said Robert Philips, president and chief investment officer at Walnut Asset Management. "But maybe if the Fed statement implies a pause is coming soon, we could move up a bit."

In addition to the Fed meeting, Tuesday brings reads on consumer confidence and manufacturing in the Midwest area, while earnings are due from Dow components Altria (Research) and Merck (Research).

What moved?

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers narrowly beat winners on volume of 1.67 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners narrowly topped advancers on volume of 1.94 billion shares.

Big tech stocks such as Apple Computer (up $2.97 to $75.00, Research), Juniper Networks (up $0.82 to $18.30, Research) and SanDisk (up $2.91 to $66.29, Research) all bounced back after sliding last week.

But a number of Internet and chip stocks declined, limiting the Nasdaq's advance.

Oil stocks were upbeat, thanks to Exxon Mobil (up $1.82 to $63.11, Research), which posted results that set U.S. records for annual and quarterly profits. Shares gained 3 percent.

That helped boost the broader oil sector, with the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector (Charts) index adding about 2.9 percent.

Dow component Wal-Mart (up $0.57 to $46.41, Research) rose 1.2 percent after it said January sales would be at the upper end of its previously announced range.

But other Dow stocks declined, including industrial stocks Alcoa (down $0.77 to $30.53, Research) and DuPont (down $0.49 to $39.34, Research).

Shares of building materials company USG (up $15.93 to $95.78, Research) rose 20 percent after it said it reached a nearly $4 billion settlement to resolve asbestos-related claims.

Fairmont Hotels (up $0.45 to $44.27, Research) inched higher after saying it was being bought by investment groups Kingdom Hotels International and Colony Capital for $3.9 billion.

Oil prices see-sawed ahead of Tuesday's OPEC meeting, ultimately ending higher.

U.S. light crude oil for March delivery rose 59 cents to $68.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after having fallen in the late morning.

Stocks were supported by an economic report that showed consumer spending and income rose in December while inflation stayed relatively tame.

The Commerce Department said personal spending rose 0.9 percent, but that its core price indicator, which doesn't include often volatile food and energy prices, only added 0.1 percent in the month.

Treasury prices eased, lifting the yield on the 10-year note to 4.53 percent from 4.51 percent late Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

In currency trading, the dollar was higher versus the euro and the yen.

COMEX gold rose $8 to settle at $566.80 an ounce.

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--CNNMoney.com staff writer Grace Wong contributed to this report.

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