Wall St. eyes the new guy
The week ahead: testimony from America's next top Fed chief and a slew of reads on the economy.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - The new kid hits Capitol Hill next week, and that's both good and bad news for a stock market preoccupied with the immediate future of interest rate hikes. Incoming Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before Congress Wednesday, giving investors a first look at the esteemed former Fed governor and White House counsel in his new role as leader of the central bank.
While there's little question of his credibility on Wall Street, there are questions about what the Fed will do in the months ahead, particularly after the last Fed policy meeting. "Stocks have been in a trading range because of concerns about inflation and about the Fed continuing to raise rates," said Ram Kolluri, chief investment officer at GlobalValue Investors. And the concerns are unlikely to be assuaged by the two-week old Fed chairman this week, even if he speaks more directly than his predecessor. "Fed governors and chairmen are notoriously circumspect about their words," said Barry Ritholtz, chief investment officer at Ritholtz Capital Partners. "But who knows what he may actually end up dropping." The week ahead also brings reads on retail sales, business inventories, manufacturing, the housing market and producer prices. (For next week's economic calendar, click here.) Earnings are also on tap, with 36 S&P 500 companies due to report, most notably Dell and Dow industrials component Hewlett-Packard. However, with 80 percent of the S&P 500 earnings already reported, investors may feel that they already know what the fourth-quarter earnings period looks like. (For next week's earnings calendar, click here.) Currently, fourth-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 are primed to rise 14.6 percent from the same period a year ago, according to earnings tracker Thomson Financial. That's a blended figure, combining reported and expected earnings. The 14.6 percent figure means the S&P 500 will have posted double-digit earnings growth for the tenth consecutive quarter. That's a positive, but is also short of the forecast of growth of 16.6 percent year-over-year that analysts were calling for at the start of the fourth quarter. All eyes on the new guy
At the Jan. 31 meeting, the last under retiring chairman Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve opted to boost a key short-term interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.5 percent. It was the 14th rate hike in a row since the central bank began its rate-hiking campaign in June 2004. The bankers also indicated in the closely-watched statement that more hikes are on tap. More rate hikes on tap is not what the stock market wanted to hear, and stocks have been choppy since then. Granted, February is typically a mixed month, but the realization that the Fed is still not done had added an extra layer of unease to a market already keeping an eye on high oil prices, a potentially slowing economy and geopolitical concerns. Some analysts took Bernanke's decision to extend the next Fed meeting in March to two days from one as a sign that inflationary concerns are greater than has been anticipated. But don't expect to hear it next week. "Next week, they are going to try to pin him down to say he has a Fed funds rate target, but he won't do it, he's not going to put himself out," said Kolluri. Regardless of what Bernanke says, the week ahead may be choppy regardless, if only because 'tis the season. "February has historically been a lackluster month for the market," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at Spencer Clarke. "When you combine that with geopolitical problems caused by Iran, challenging market technicals and the uncertainty regarding the Fed, you end up with a choppy market." Key events in the week ahead
Next week's big earnings
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