The Playboy bunny is hot money, honey
Don't snicker. Playboy was one of the better performing media stocks of 2005 and Wall Street sees more good times ahead.
By Paul R. La Monica, CNNMoney.com senior writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) – Playboy, the legendary publisher of uh, adult-themed magazines, reported its fourth-quarter results Tuesday and there are several easy jokes we could make about the fact that the numbers were released on Valentine's Day.

But we're above that. Really. After all, why go lowbrow when discussing a company that's actually been a star performer in an underperforming sector?

Analysts expect video-on-demand services to be a big boost to Playboy's sales and profits for the next few years.
Analysts expect video-on-demand services to be a big boost to Playboy's sales and profits for the next few years.
Banking on the bunny: Shares of Playboy have outperformed many other media stocks during the past year.
Banking on the bunny: Shares of Playboy have outperformed many other media stocks during the past year.
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Playboy's stock jumped 13 percent in 2005, a more than respectable performance for a media company, particularly one with strong ties to the struggling publishing business.

What's more, the company raised its earnings guidance for 2006 Tuesday, sending Playboy (Research) shares up nearly 9 percent in early trading.

And several analysts interviewed recently think there's more love to go around for Playboy investors.

Sex sells

After reporting several consecutive years of losses earlier in the decade, analysts say Playboy has bounced back lately thanks to a stronger focus on its video-on-demand television operations as well as increased revenue from licensing the brand name.

To that end, Playboy announced a video on demand (VOD) agreement to have its films available through Comcast (Research), the nation's largest cable firm, in October. And on the licensing side, the Palms Casino in Las Vegas will be opening a Playboy Club and Casino this summer.

"The turnaround is still continuing. The Comcast-VOD deal and more licensing deals will drive results going forward," said Robert Routh, an analyst with Jefferies & Co.

Licensing, in particular, is expected to be a key part of the company's growth strategy, said David Bank, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets. Although licensing represents just a small portion of the company's overall revenue, less than 10 percent, the business segment is extremely profitable.

For example, Bank estimates that in its first full year of operation the Playboy casino at the Palms could bring in about $5 million in sales to Playboy and that the company should generate about $4 million in gross profit from the casino.

"This is a fantastic deal. There are virtually no operating expenses for Playboy. They are just giving out their name," said Bank, adding that if the casino at the Palms is a success, he would not be surprised to see Playboy do similar deals in London as well with casino operators in Macau and Shanghai, China.

Playboy also will benefit from having a cleaner balance sheet since it restructured a large portion of its debt last year in order to reduce the interest expense it must pay on that debt. Melissa Otto, an analyst with DE Investment Research, estimates that the company will be able to lower its interest payments by about 35 percent from 2004 levels as a result of the debt restructuring.

"This allows the company to use its cash to focus on areas where there is growth rather than utilize it for interest expense," she said. "They can invest more cash in marketing."

The debt restructuring caused the company's fourth quarter results to be lower than a year ago, however. Playboy reported a fourth quarter profit of 14 cents a share and a full-year loss of 2 cents a share, down from earnings of 43 cents a share and 30 cents a share respectively for last year's fourth quarter and all of 2004.

But excluding a charge for the restructuring, Playboy reported earnings of 56 cents a share for all of 2005. The company also said that it expects earnings in 2006 to be up 20 to 25 percent from last year, to a range of 67 cents to 70 a share, thanks to the strength in entertainment and licensing.

Analysts had been forecasting earnings of 67 cents a share for 2006 and revenue of $359 million, a 6 percent increase from last year. Playboy made no revenue forecast for 2006.

Online and wireless should pick up slack for magazine

To be sure, Playboy, like many other publishing companies, still faces a tough market. Advertising revenue is expected to be sluggish for the company's flagship magazine this year. And publishing accounts for nearly a third of Playboy's overall sales, so weakness there is problematic.

But Dennis McAlpine, an independent media analyst, said that as long as Playboy can make sure that its magazines don't lose a lot of money then the company should be in good shape going forward since it still has a lot of opportunities to increase sales through its small, but growing, online and wireless content units.

"The objective is to see the magazine break even give or take. It really doesn't matter much anymore. The real growth is going to be on the electronic media side," he said.

Along those lines, Bank points out that Playboy quietly launched a Playboy Mobile service in December with Cingular Wireless. The content is fairly tame (mainly some PG-rated wallpaper images and ring tones) and Bank said that over the next year, he expects more wireless carriers to add the service.

But can the stock still be a buy? Bank argues that Playboy, which currently trades at about 21 times 2006 earnings estimates, is worth it given that earnings should increase by at least 20 percent this year.

Routh agrees that the shares, despite their strong 2005, still have more room to run. He thinks a fair value for Playboy is about $16.34, nearly 20 percent higher than Monday's closing price.

So with all of that in mind, it looks like there's no need to hide this stock under your bed in a brown paper bag.

The SI swimsuit issue is coming to iTunes. Click here.

Sex sells, should you buy? Click here.

Analysts quoted in this story do not own shares of Playboy and their firms have no investment banking ties with the company. Top of page

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.