Andy Serwer Commentary:
Street Life by Andy Serwer Column archive
Two stocks to buy ... and one that's dead money
Avon is a deal and DCX has value, but stay away from Microsoft, even with its origami.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - And here we are with a new week ...

AVON: Hmmm, I wonder if they have doorbells in China? Avon has received approval to become the first company to get back into the business of direct sales after an eight year hiatus. China banned selling door to door back in 1998 because of rampant fraud. (Amway's coming back too!) You know Avon's had its troubles recently ... stock fell from the mid $40s in '04 to high $20s lately. This past Friday, the company announced a major $500 million dollar restructuring. Company said 2006 will be a transition year. Fair enough. Lots of people say this is a dead business, that the Internet will kill direct selling, but I don't think so. Yes the Internet will hurt ... but guess what? People like people. They want to hang out with each other and buy cosmetics and knives and Tupperware. The other point is that Avon (Research) is a great brand. It's always got that to lean on. Buy it while it's cheap.

DAIMLERCHRYSLER: My main man Dieter Zetsche, CEO of said German/American automaker, says he will eventually roll out those little bitty Smart minicars that are all the rage in Europe, but it may take a while. And here's the dirty little secret about the silly little car. It loses a HUGE amount of money. Like hundreds of million so dollars per annum. Ol' Dieter -- he of the fabulous moustache --says he may look to partner with some other automaker and has hired Goldman Sachs to investigate. Good luck. Is there a market for the car here in the U.S.? Yes in urban markets and with college kids, but guess what? The Mini Cooper got here first. Still, if you are going to own an auto stock, DCX (Research) is the one. Dieter is the real deal. And get this, the stock is up over the past five years, two years, and one year. Not cheap, and sure others may have more upside, but downside risk is much bigger. Go with the leader....

MICROSOFT: Taking a page out of Apple's playbook. Again. It looks like ol' Mr. Softie is going to be rolling out a tablet-like hand-held device. ... How long has MSFT been talking tablet-PCs? Since I was a young man, that's how long. Also interesting that Microsoft appears to be going the viral marketing campaign route. There's this website: origamiproject.com, that seems to refer to the rollout and the product that will "change your life." And MSFT (Research) confirms that it is theirs. The New York Times reports that a video from an outfit called Digital Kitchen shows the device. (I couldn't find that though.) Supposed to get more info on all this on Thursday. How 'Apple' is all of this? Oh and by the way, Apple (Research) is rolling out a new product on Tuesday. As for Microsoft, will any of this move the stock? No. Just dead money for now......

Loose Change: Speaking to a hedge fund manager over the weekend about the Patriot Act and its impact on the markets. He noted that markets in the Arab world, Egypt, Morocco, etc soared last year. Why was that? Prince Al-Waleed told me several months ago it was because of the spread of democracy in the region. Well maybe a little bit, said my source, but mostly it was because Arab investors pulled their money out of the U.S. and dollars because they were concerned the Patriot Act was going to get them! So they took money out of here in plunked it down back home. Same holds true with gold. BTW, source says Arab markets are due for a big correction ... Boy I'm sad about Don Knotts. Love him.

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E-mail Andy Serwer at serwer@fortunemail.com Top of page

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.