Big rally in the bond market
Treasury prices climb on retail sales numbers, speculation that Fed rate hikes will be ending soon; dollar slips.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Treasury prices rallied Tuesday, snapping back from their recent sell-off, on the latest retail sales numbers and a report that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its rate-hiking campaign.

The dollar slipped against the euro and yen.

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The benchmark 10-year Treasury note jumped 16/32 to 98-11/32 to yield to 4.70 percent, down from 4.77 late Monday.

The 30-year bond climbed 24/32 to 96-19/32, yielding 4.71 percent, down from 4.76 the previous session. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The five-year note rose 12/32, yielding 4.68 percent, and the two-year note was up four ticks, yielding 4.67.

Initially unmoved by the weaker-than-expected retail sales report, Treasury prices eventually advanced after the Commerce Department reported that sales fell a greater-than-expected 1.3 percent in February -- although an upwardly revised 2.9 percent gain in January hinted that consumers are still spending at a strong pace.

Aaron Smith, a market economist with Economy.com, blamed the delayed reaction on the strong January figures.

"Normally a report like this would be a fundamental driver of higher Treasury prices and lower yields. But on the back of such a strong January number, it was in line with what markets were anticipating," Smith told CNNMoney.com.

Excluding autos, retail sales for the previous month fell 0.4 percent.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected retail sales to drop 0.9 percent in February after an exceptionally strong 2.3 percent gain in January.

Investors normally pay particularly close attention to reports on consumer spending, since it accounts for two-thirds of economic growth in the United States.

Some market observers blamed the delayed reaction on a report by Medley Global Advisors, a firm that provides research to hedge funds and investment banks.

The report allegedly suggested that the Federal Reserve is poised to wind down its interest rate hike campaign, Reuters reported.

"It's an excuse to consolidate recent losses, although it seems highly implausible that federal officials would want to signal their plans, through any channel," Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller, Tabak & Co., told the news service.

Medley Global Advisors declined to comment on the report.

Fed policy-makers, due to meet later this month, are expected to raise a key short-term rate for a 15th consecutive time, to 4.75 percent. Many analysts and investors say the central bank will raise rates at least once more after that. The following Fed meeting is in May.

The recent sell-off in the Treasury market has also provided support for prices.

Just last week, the yield on the 10-year note climbed as high 4.80 percent, the highest since June 2004, as investors worried about rising interest rates sold Treasurys.

Investors will have plenty of reports to digest for the remainder of the week, including the Fed's "Beige Book" report on economic conditions as well as the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index.

In currency trading, the euro traded at $1.2021, up from $1.1959 late Monday, while the dollar fell to ¥117.42 from ¥118.86 the previous session.

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.