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A for-profit school stock worth studying Universal Technical Institute has seen its share price plummet in the past two years, but we think it deserves higher grades.
The for-profit education sector has, for the past few years, been rife with controversy. Regulatory scrutiny, declining enrollment growth, class-action lawsuits and bad press - including disgruntled students showing up on a 60 Minutes report - have caused stocks like Career Education and Corinthian Colleges to lose 46% and 53% of their value, respectively, since May 2004. Universal Technical Institute (UTI) - which has 10 campuses that provide training for students in automotive, motorcycle, diesel, NASCAR, marine and collision technician and repair - has also been hit. The stock is down 46% over the last two years.
But while the failing grades of some of the other names in the group seem justified, UTI may have been judged too harshly. Howard Block, Banc of America Securities analyst likes the business's long-term fundamentals, and thinks that a turning point will occur sometime in 2007. "We still believe UTI's value proposition for its students is far superior to that of any company in its peer group," says Block in a recent report. The basics of the business are still good. Job growth for automotive and diesel technicians and mechanics will be between 9 percent and 17 percent through 2014, according to U.S. Department of Labor projections. And the number of cars on the road keeps increasing, even while U.S. auto manufacturers struggle. Another advantage for UTI is its relationships with companies such as BMW, Toyota, Harley-Davidson and Ford, with whom it collaborates on manufacturer-specific programs. This not only gives students an edge in training, employment and tuition reimbursement, but it also means that UTI can cut down on capital expenses through equipment donations and program design assistance. The management team is well-respected by analysts that cover the sector. At its core is Kim McWaters, who has been the CEO since 2003, and Jennifer Haslip, CFO since 2002. The women know the for-profit education world inside and out. Both graduated from for-profit institutions and they've been with the company 22 and 8 years respectively. They've guided the company through many years of growth and an IPO in 2003. The school's business model is more complex than their competitors', due to the fact that they need bigger classrooms to allow for more hands-on training. But Trey Cowan III, analyst at the Stanford Group, said he's impressed with how well McWaters and Haslip know their numbers and thinks they're up to the task. Management expects top-line growth to be in the 20% range in 2006 and 2007. But sometimes with growth comes pain. Recent problems with their call center resulted in lost opportunities with potential students. Marketing and advertising shifted away from a more effective local focus UTI had employed in the past. And student enrollment growth rates slowed. The issues are no secret and management is addressing each one. UTI hired a new call center, as well as a new ad agency. They installed new leadership at an underperforming campus. In addition, while the sector as a whole has been pulled down by regulatory issues, UTI's record is clean. With a PE of 24, the stock isn't cheap, but it's not as expensive as, say, competitor Corinthian Colleges, which is trading at 30 times 2006 earnings. And lowered expectations seem to be priced in - the stock is down 22% year-to-date. Investors with a little patience could really make money on this for-profit education niche player. Learn more when UTI reports second-quarter earnings on May 9. |
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