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2-headed monster stalks markets
Some investors worry about a slowdown, others point to inflation. Which group is right?
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Economists agree there are worrying signs about the nation's economy. What they don't agree on is what should be the major worry. Some economists are pointing to signs of inflation ahead of this week's Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index reports.
They point to factors such as wage growth outpacing prices in the most recent employment report, and a weakening dollar as an underlying inflationary pressure beyond the impact of high energy prices. And they say those factors are raising concerns that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates at its June meeting and perhaps beyond. "I think the markets are finally realizing that inflation is in them thar hills and the Fed will have to continue to tap on the brakes," said Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research. He's looking for a 0.7 percent rise in the CPI in April, and a 0.3 percent increase in the so-called core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both estimates are above the consensus increase of 0.5 percent for CPI and 0.2 percent for the core, according to surveys of economists by Briefing.com. Yamarone said that a dollar weakening compared to the yen and the euro, as well as the Chinese yuan, can only add to inflationary pressure in the United States. "We haven't seen that yet, but we should be expecting to be importing higher inflation," he said. That's because a falling dollar makes overseas goods more expensive in dollar terms. But others point to factors such as weaker-than-expected retail sales, sluggish hiring by retailers and a sharp drop in consumer confidence in the most recent reports as signs that it's a slowing economy, not inflation, that is the biggest concern for investors. "Right now the focus of the whole world is the U.S. consumer," said Drew Matus, senior economist with Lehman Brothers. "If the consumers roll over, the Fed will have to react." Policy-makers at the Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, last week raised their key short-term rate target another quarter-point to 5 percent, the 16th straight increase, and left the door open for further increases. How much further the Fed will go has been a hot topic on Wall Street, where the debate was raging Monday. Commodity prices tumbled and blue-chip stocks were under pressure early, reflecting worries about a slowdown. But blue chips bounced back by the end of the session, as fears of a slowdown eased and investors turned to the inflation reports due later in the week. Housing concerns
Some analysts concerned about a slowdown point to the cooling housing market as one factor that will tend to slow consumer spending - and the broader economy. That's because the housing boom of recent years has fueled a big engine for economic growth. The National Association of Realtors Monday reported an unusual drop in median home prices in the first quarter from the fourth quarter, although they were still up year over year. Generally, inflationary pressure and a slowing economy are not problems that exist at the same time. Strong economic growth creates increased demand for goods, while slowing growth cuts that demand. Even the economists focusing on a slowdown acknowledge that price pressures need to be watched. "I think the market knows these inflation jitters came as a result of faster economic growth," said Anthony Chan, chief economist for JPMorgan Private Client Services. And even the economists who are worried about prices acknowledge there will be slower growth ahead, they just see it being strong enough to support prices. The combination of rising inflationary pressure and slower growth can lead to a condition known as "stagflation." But most economists say that even with the current concerns, it's too soon to worry about stagflation, or even a milder form dubbed "stagflation light." "Trend-like economic growth and 2.2 percent (annual) core inflation is very difficult to call stagflation," said Jason Schenker, economist with Wachovia. One thing that economists agree is that the April and May inflation readings will be particularly important to the Fed, and investors, ahead of the next Fed meeting set for June 28-29. ----------------------------------- Real estate prices start to cool. Click here. Your Job 2006. More here
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