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3 retailers in trouble
Hot Topic, Pier 1, Gap: With their stock price and same-store sales severely eroded, what's it going to take to keep these brands relevant with consumers?
By Parija Bhatnagar, CNNMoney.com staff writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Hot Topic, Pier 1 Imports and Gap are three troubled retailers trying to dig out of a deep hole. Unfortunately, time may be running out while the hole just seems to be getting bigger.

All three companies have already suffered sales declines at their stores open at least a year -- a key retail measure known as same-store sales.

The sales erosion has battered profitability, especially at Goth and music-themed clothier Hot Topic. It posted a first-quarter loss Wednesday, reversing a year-earlier profit.

Home furnishing seller Pier 1 expects to post a deeper first-quarter loss when it reports its quarterly results next month.

And No. 1 apparel seller Gap Inc. saw its first-quarter profit decline 16 percent in a report issued late Thursday.

Moreover, investors have lost patience and severely punished all three over the last 12 months. Pier 1 (Research) shares are down almost 47 percent, Hot Topic (Research) shares have slumped 32 percent and Gap Inc. (Research) shares have retreated 15 percent during that period.

Given their significant business challenges and the protracted sales weakness, observers say it's questionable whether these companies can stage a comeback on their own.

Hot Topic: Juicy bait for private equity firms

According to Bernard Sands' senior retail analyst Richard Hastings, Hot Topic's current business model conforms to the type of retailer that would arouse the interest of cash-rich private equity firms.

"Hot Topic is growing its store base at the same time that its operating income is dwindling. This is what private equity firms on the prowl look for," Hastings said. "By going private, it's also easier for the new management team to rework Hot Topic's concept and try to evolve it into something different."

The California-based company operates over 660 of its namesake outlets as well as more than 120 "Torrid" stores that sell trendy teen apparel in larger sizes.

Craig Johnson, president of retail consulting group Customer Growth Partners, suggested this scenario, "Supposing Hot Topic were to be acquired by a buyout firm, the idea would be to resize operations, take costs out of the business, and finally update and modify the basic value proposition."

The problem with Hot Topic is that it was a very unique concept when it was first launched. At the same time, its merchandise was too narrowly focused on a niche market of fickle teens. As the winds of fashion changed bringing back colorful and preppy clothing, sales of Hot Topic's Goth-inspired offerings took a hit.

"The larger it got, the more difficult it became for Hot Topic to quickly adapt to new trends in that market," Johnson said. "Becoming smaller will allow it to become more nimble."

Pier 1: Stuck in the 90s

Just like Hot Topic, Fort Worth, Texas-based Pier 1 hit on a successful merchandising idea - with wicker furniture - but forgot to adapt its offerings to changing trends.

Said Johnson, "This is a brand that's very much stuck in the 90s. It sorely needs to reinvent itself with a wholesale rethinking of the brand. I think the existing management is challenged on this front. I think a private equity buyout is a possibility for Pier 1."

The writing is on the wall. Earlier this month, Pier 1, which operates over 1,200 stores, announced it had hired JPMorgan to help evaluate strategic alternatives including a possible sale its credit card business.

"From a marketing perspective, Pier 1's concept isn't unique anymore," Hastings said. Pier 1 is also feeling the squeeze on its business from non-traditional "home" retailers as discounters Wal-Mart (Research) and Target (Research) aggressively expand into the home space and win over younger customers.

Morningstar analyst Anthony Chukumba said Pier 1 is stuck in a "perfect storm." The merchandise is "just bad," he said. It has too many stores and has saturated its domestic market. It's advertising lacks direction and its facing competition from newer players.

"Some of these problems are fixable. Does it have the right management to do it? I don't think so," he said. At the same time, he added that selling its credit card unit is a good move and would give Pier 1 the liquidity it needs to focus on improving its core business.

A widening Gap

The consensus among industry analysts about the Gap is that each of its three retail divisions - Banana Republic, Gap and Old Navy - still have very strong brand equity. Therefore Johnson doesn't expect any kind of structural change to happen at the company.

"It's certainly not good that the brand and the stock have been going sideways for three years. This reflects poorly on the CEO," Johnson said.

Indeed, speculation has been building among industry analysts that Gap's problems have put CEO Paul Pressler on shaky ground.

Could he be ousted? Johnson said there's some possibility of that happening. "If the board is doing its job of stewardship properly, it will have to consider all possibilities. Gap is a strong brand but it needs some fresh blood."

Observers say loyal consumers are increasingly frustrated with Gap's failure to hit the right trends at the right time.

"There's insufficient risk-taking at the company and no real synergies between the three divisions," Hastings said. Gap also needs to be mindful of how higher energy costs, rising interest rates and cooling mortgage refinancing activity are impacting consumers' shopping behavior.

Retailers that offer the best value for the dollar typically look more appealing to cash-strapped consumers, while those that sit in the mid-point discretionary arena, such as the Gap, are at risk from consumers trading down to lower-priced goods.

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