Roller-coaster ride
The stock rally hit a speed bump. What comes next will depend on the economic numbers, and the Fed.
By Jessica Seid, CNNMoney.com staff writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - The earnings-inspired rally that took the Dow near its all-time high seems like an ancient memory.

But that was less than two weeks ago. The market's taken a beating since, and whether stocks have hit bottom or are just beginning to slide could well be determined by the economic numbers this week and in the weeks to come.

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Stocks have struggled since the Federal Reserve lifted a key short-term interest rate May 10, as expected, but did not specify when its rate-hiking campaign would be over, as many investors had hoped.

The sell-off that started the next day has taken the 30-share Dow down 4.3 percent after it got about 80 points from its all-time high of 11,722.98, where it closed on Jan. 14, 2000.

Adding fuel to the retreat last week were two reports of rising inflation, both in wholesale and consumer prices, which sparked selling on the belief that the Fed would have to keep raising rates.

The Dow, the world's most widely watched stock market gauge, skidded another 300 points between Tuesday and Thursday.

In fact, all three major gauges have posted significant losses since the selloff began. In addition to the Dow's drop, the Nasdaq composite is down 5.5 percent and the Standard & Poor's 500 index has given up 4.2 percent.

Investors have been searching for clues as to what the Fed will do with interest rates at its next meeting June 28-29. The Fed funds rate, an overnight bank lending rate, currently stands at 5 percent after 16 consecutive rate hikes of a quarter percentage point.

"Anything to do with inflation is certainly going to be closely watched," said Scott Wren, senior equity strategist at A.G. Edwards & Sons.

As concerns about inflation and interest rates persist, the week brings several key economic reports, including April readings on durable orders, and new and existing home sales. (See chart for details.)

While Wren believes we will see more moderate economic growth in the reports to come, a certain amount of anxiety this week seems to be a inevitable.

"We'll be glued to the economic data strings, which means a lot of knee-jerk reactions," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co. "I predict more volatility, if we continue to see inflationary data, the market is not going to celebrate."

Higher rates tend to slow economic growth, which can hurt earnings, and thus stocks.

Eye on earnings

It was strong earnings that had the market humming along so nicely just a few weeks ago. And that hasn't changed.

About 95 percent of the S&P 500 and all of the Dow industrials have reported first-quarter numbers, and the results have been bullish.

Sixty-eight percent of this season's earnings reports have been above expectations, while 14 percent matched and 18 percent missed, according to the latest figures from earnings tracker Thomson Financial.

Lowe's (Research), Toll Brothers (Research), Petco (up $0.20 to $22.01, Research) and Big Lots (Research) are due to report earnings next week.

Earnings are currently on track to grow 11 percent versus a year earlier, according to Thomson. That's a blended figure, combining forecasted and reported earnings.

That means the first quarter will be the 11th in a row in which S&P earnings gained at least 10 percent, a pace not seen in more than a decade.

But of course, investors look ahead, not back. So the coming weeks could be telling for the market.

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.