The attraction of copper and floss
Phelps Dodge and Patterson could make for attractive long term plays; Bluecoat will fall
NEW YORK (Fortune) - So now both the stock market and the bond market (with a briefly inverted yield curve) are pointing to the economy hitting the skids. I say maybe. Hey, we are in an anything goes time if you ask me. PHELPS DODGE: I know what you're thinking, the great commodity boom of this decade is over. After several years of spectacular gains commodity prices and commodity based stocks have plunged since May 10th. Give you an idea. Phelps Dodge (Research) is down from $102 to $82 over the past two weeks! But I for one, do not, I repeat, do not, think this baby is over. In fact copper prices are up this morning in London because traders are unsure that supply will meet demand this year because of strikes and weak output. To wit there are some big problems at major mines in Mexico. Codelco, the giant Chilean producer (it has a 200-year supply of the metal), says its production will be down slightly this year. And with demand from China soaring, this will only do one thing to prices. Make 'em go up. PATTERSON COMPANIES: Open wide and say AHHHHH! See I like dental supply companies, which is what PDCO (Research) is all about. Plus it has a rehab equipment business as well as a big vet supply biz. We're talking horses ... a business in the news this week, no? Patterson, now based in St. Paul, Minn., was founded in 1877 by brothers Myron and John Patterson in Milwakee. So they've been around the block. Over the years it's been owned by Esmark and Beatrice (my goodness remember them!). Obviously demographics and GDP spend (can you say cosmetic surgery) are in your favor here. Plus the business is fragmented, which means room to grow. Over time this has been a stock to make investors smile, though over the past year she's fallen from the mid $50s to mid $30s. But earnings came in on track this morning and we could get some action today ... and even more significantly, down the road! BLUECOAT SYSTEMS: Careful here! BCSI (Research) makes systems and software that protects corporate networks. You'd think this would be a good business, but it's a crowded field, and the company reported a loss last night. Company used to be called CacheFlow, remember them? Stock is set to fall more than 10 percent this morning. One of the company's customers? The Green Bay Packers. Funny, they aren't blue.... Loose Change: Readers complained that the India Fund (Research) I was up on earlier in the week sold for a big premium over its net asset value ... meaning it's expensive. True. Deep Blue points to the Matthews India fund, there are other Indian stocks too of course. _____________________ E-mail Andy Serwer at serwer@fortunemail.com More Fortune? Click here. |
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