No really, here come the earnings
Next week brings the biggest spate of 2Q earnings yet and many results should impress. But are investors too worried to notice?
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The week ahead brings the biggest batch of quarterly earnings reports yet, and most expectations are for continued improvement from a year ago.

Also expected: that Wall Street will pay little or no attention to positive earnings, briefly acknowledge disappointing earnings by stumbling, and then resume focusing on energy prices, the Middle East and the velocity of the U.S. economy.

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"I think a lot of people are really being driven by emotions at this point," said Russell Lundeberg, Jr., chief investment officer at money manager Barrett Capital Management. "There is a lot of fear and anxiety about the economy and the geopolitical risk, and the focus is not on the market fundamentals."

With the exception of a few upbeat days here and there, stocks have been in a general downturn since the major gauges peaked in the spring, and there are plenty of reasons to suggest that downturn isn't done with. For one thing, bad news is treated as bad news, and good news is either ignored or picked apart until it seems bad.

For example, Intel's disappointing earnings results slayed the broader market last Thursday and warnings from Dell and Broadcom hit stocks Friday, sending the Nasdaq composite to its lowest level in 14 months. But in the same period, Microsoft, Motorola and Google all delivered upbeat earnings news that could have just as easily lifted markets.

Similarly, stocks rallied last Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told congress that while he remains concerned about inflation, a slowing economy should help ease pricing pressure going forward. But yet the same general message from the Fed chief contributed to a stock selloff the next day.

Why? Because on Wednesday, his message was interpreted to mean that the central bank's two-year interest-rate hiking campaign is nearly over. But by Thursday, the comment was seen as meaning that the economy is slowing faster than had been thought.

"The fear is that the interest rate increases have gone on for too long and that we're not going to have a slowdown, but roll into a recession," said Ben Halliburton, chief investment officer at Tradition Capital Management.

The central bank has raised the Fed funds rate, a key overnight bank lending rate, 17 straight times since June of 2004. It currently stands at 5.25 percent.

"We won't find out until later in the year or early next year whether the fear of recession comes to fruition," Halliburton said. "But stocks are trying to look ahead and discount the impact of the rate hikes and what they will mean for the economy and corporate profits, so you're seeing this volatility now."

Earnings heat up

In the week ahead, 170 companies, or 34 percent of the S&P 500, report results, including Dow 30 components' American Express, Merck, Altria, DuPont and Exxon Mobil. Big name tech earnings include Amazon.com and Texas Instruments.

Although it's very early in the period, so far, earnings have been topping estimates, as is often the case. With just under one-third of the S&P 500 having already reported results, earnings are currently on track to grow 13.6 percent from a year ago, according to tracker Thomson Financial. That's a blended figure, representing reported and expected results.

Should the number hold up through the quarter, it would represent the 12th straight quarter when S&P 500 earnings have grown by at least ten percent, said David Dropsey, a research analyst at Thomson Financial.

While it's too early to highlight any major trends, Dropsey says that so far, the industrial and materials sectors are performing the best, although that ranking is expected to change once the energy sector reports results in the next two weeks.

Energy companies have posted the biggest year-over-year quarterly gains of any sector for more than two years running, amid the run up in oil prices and global demand for the raw commodity. This quarter is not expected to be any different.

What's also not expected to be any different this quarter is the mild response from investors to the earnings in energy and the rest of the market.

"The main trend that is most notable so far is that once again, we're seeing good earnings growth and the market just really doesn't care," Dropsey said. Top of page

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.