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Stocks that can ride a pause With the Fed taking a break, markets may now shift to worrying about an economic slowdown -- bad for profits and stocks. But these sectors may benefit.  NEW YORK (Money Magazine) -- The Federal Reserve decided Tuesday not to raise interest rates for the first time in more than two years, noting that economic growth had "moderated." So which sectors are likely to do well now? A recent study from Citigroup looked at the past five runs of Fed rate hikes and examined how stocks performed in the 12 months following each final rate increase. What they found: Classic defensive plays like pharmaceuticals, financials, utilities and consumer staples (which includes companies such as Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble) have historically gained twice as much as the S&P 500 once the Fed stops raising rates. That's because consumers continue buying medicine, drinking soda and paying their electric bill, regardless of the state of the economy. Within that group, big drug companies look especially attractive, says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist with Standard & Poor's Equity Research. Patent expiration fears and high-profile drug-safety scares have depressed drugmakers' stock prices. Meanwhile, the new Medicare prescription drug benefit is expected to hugely increase demand for their products. "There is the potential for profit growth combined with the interest in the sector's defensive characteristics," Stovall says. Brad Sorensen, a senior analyst with the Schwab Center for Investment Research, also expects the health-care sector to lead the pack once interest rates stop rising. But he says that if the economy continues to sink, it could be a mixed bag for financial stocks. Sorensen says big banks like Citigroup (Charts) and J.P. Morgan Chase (Charts) should benefit from greater corporate loan demand and merger activity once rate hikes end. But investors may want to steer clear of regional banks with major exposure to home loans, since more consumers will likely default on their mortgages if the economy goes sour. "That concerns us," Sorensen says. ______________________ (Correction: An earlier version of this story misquoted Sorensen as saying he was recommending Citigroup and J.P. Morgan Chase specifically. CNNMoney regrets the error). |
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