Bulls on a beach
After one of the busiest, best weeks of the year for stock gains, investors gear up for a calmer period on Wall Street.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street, you just enjoyed one of your best weeks of the year. What are you going to do next? Why, go on vacation of course.

And really, investors might as well, because after breezing through a five-session advance last week, the week ahead is likely to pose a lot more challenges.

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It's not that inflation expectations are likely to be revised. It's not that big earnings disappointments loom. It's that the calendar is bare, it's the last week of August and more investors will be working on their tans than their portfolios.

"We've had a nice run up, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a little profit taking next week," said Tom Schrader, managing director of listed trading at Legg Mason. "But overall, I think it's going to be very quiet through Labor Day."

Stocks rallied last week, as investors welcomed strong earnings from Hewlett Packard and others and a drop in oil prices after a cease-fire in the Israel-Hezbollah war. But the main impetus for the rally was the collective sigh of relief after reports on both wholesale and consumer inflation showed pricing pressures were down in July.

This was good news for investors who were worried that if inflation didn't start to temper, the Federal Reserve might might have to restart its recently-paused interest-rate hiking campaign at the next Fed meeting.

Treasury bond prices rallied, sending corresponding yields lower. And stocks surged, too.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 2.6 percent on the week and the broader S&P 500 gained 2.8 percent. For both averages, this marked the second best week of the year on a percentage basis.

But things were even better for technology investors. The tech-fueled Nasdaq composite gained almost 5.5 percent, scoring its best week on a percentage basis since October 2003, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.

Next week is unlikely to be quite so rosy.

Follow the oil market?

One of the big factors that led the market advance last week was the decline in oil prices, with crude for September delivery falling by more than 4 percent.

The slide in crude prices and gasoline prices added to investor hopes that a slowing economy is taking the edge off of inflation, a scenario the Federal Reserve seems to be counting on.

Two weeks ago, the Fed opted to keep a key short-term interest rate unchanged at 5.25 percent after boosting it 17 times in a row since June 2004. One of the reasons the central bank paused was its concern about the slowing economy and its belief that such a slowdown will also reduce pricing pressure going forward.

Right now, investors are focused on the positive aspects of that equation - the potential for inflation to wane. But the focus could become more negative if investors start to worry more about the slowing economy and its impact on corporate profits.

Because next week is so light on news, those worries could resurface in the week ahead, particularly if the price of oil should decline more substantially than it did last week, said Ken Tower, chief market strategist at CyberTrader.

Oil prices have been declining since peaking near $80 a barrel in mid-July. Crude briefly dipped below $70 a barrel Friday before inching back up.

Should the price fall through $68 a barrel next week, that could be significant, Tower said. That's because oil has bottomed out at around $69 per barrel in both May and June before bouncing back.

Oil prices have been surging for more than 3 years due to the rising demand of a growing, global economy. So the reason behind any potential slide in oil prices now will be key for stock investors.

A slide in the price of oil is a positive for stock investors "if it helps the inflation and consumer spending outlook," Tower said. "If it's a precursor to a larger-than-expected slowdown in the economy, then that's not a good thing."

Key events in the week ahead

Monday: Lowe's (Charts) is expected to report earnings of 61 cents per share, versus 52 cents a year ago, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by First Call/Thomson Financial.

Tuesday: Toll Brothers (Charts) is expected to report earnings of $1.05 per share, according to analysts, versus $1.27 a year ago.

Wednesday: July existing home sales are expected to have fallen to a 6.58 million unit rate in the month from a 6.62 million unit rate in June.

Thursday: July new home sales are expected to have fallen to a 1.10 million unit rate from a 1.131 million unit rate in June.

Thursday: July durable goods orders are expected to show no change after rising 2.9 percent in June. Top of page

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.