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Oil could thwart bulls
U.S. stocks set for flat to lower open as crude prices rally on brewing storm near the Gulf of Mexico; Bernanke set to speak.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A rally in oil prices could put a damper on the start of Friday's U.S. stock trading, as traders await the latest comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

At 7:40 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures were higher, but a comparison to fair value indicated a flat to slightly lower open.

Oil was significantly higher as a storm north of Venezuela that is expected to be upgraded Friday into Tropical Storm Ernesto heads northwest on a path that could take it into the Gulf of Mexico oil production region. Prices were off the earlier highs, though.

U.S. light crude rose $1.01 to $73.37 a barrel in electronic trading, while Brent crude in London gained $1.09 cents to $73.77.

David Kelly, economic advisor for Putnam Investments, said that while there's still only a small risk at this point of the storm disrupting oil production in the Gulf, the timing of it could roil oil markets Friday.

"You've got two forecast days to go before you get a chance to trade again, and that could make the markets nervous," he said about the upcoming weekend.

Bernanke is set to address the Kansas City Federal Reserve's Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., at 10 a.m. ET Friday. His remarks follow a couple of weeks of rising concern in the financial markets about the slowdown in the U.S. economy, particularly in the housing sector.

The Fed left rates unchanged at its Aug. 8 meeting, its first pause after more than two years of rate hikes, although the statement it issued warned of rising inflationary pressures.

But the statement also said the decision on future rate hikes would "depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth."

Thus, investors and economists will be listening for possible clues from the Fed chairman about those competing pressures in the face of recent weaker economic readings. Kelly said that ahead of his remarks, traders are simply worried because of the risk Bernanke will again make a comment that will spark a strong market reaction in one direction or the other, as he has several times since taking office in February.

"He's a quarterback who's thrown a few interceptions so far and people get nervous seeing him getting ready to throw the ball again," said Kelly. "This is a delicate time and they're nervous he might say the wrong thing. There could be a relief rally if we get past his comments without him saying anything."

Treasury prices rallied, cutting the 10-year note yield to 4.79 percent from 4.80 percent late Thursday.

The dollar was higher against the euro and the yen in early trading.

Major markets in Asia closed mixed Friday, as Japan's Nikkei saw its winning streak end. Shares of Sony fell 2 percent after Apple Computer (Charts) recalled 1.8 million notebook computer batteries made by Sony due to overheating. Markets in Europe were little changed in early trading.

In corporate news, the Securities and Exchange Commission will be conducting an informal inquiry into the stock-option grants of builder KB Home (Charts), company officials said Thursday evening. The company said earlier this week it was conducting its own probe of the options program.

Toyota Motor (Charts), which has been hit by an increase in recalls and quality problems, is considering delaying introductions of some new models by as much as half a year, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal.

Ford Motor (Charts) Chairman and CEO Bill Ford told Business Week that his company would be open to alliances with competitors and that it is "not sitting on the sidelines waiting for things to happen" as General Motors (Charts) investigates an possible link-up with Nissan (Charts) and Renault. But Ford would not comment directly on whether his company is interested in joining Nissan and Renault if GM passes on a deal.

Shares of Ford fell almost 1 percent in Frankfurt trading, as did shares of GM.

More information on markets ahead of the U.S. open. Top of page

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