NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- From the way the stock market's been acting lately, you would think inflation is under control, the economy has avoided a recession and the Federal Reserve is biding its time until early next year, when it can start cutting interest rates.

Such bets have buoyed stocks through what is typically a wretched time of year - August and September. Last week, stocks got a one-two boost from falling oil prices and a report that showed core consumer prices only rose modestly in August, in line with forecasts.

Another report earlier in the week showed that retail sales slowed, but did not fall into negative territory in August, as some economists had feared. That played into the so-called "Goldilocks" scenario, of not too hot, not too cold economic activity.

This perception enabled investors to look beyond troubles in the auto industry, even amid a negative reaction to Ford Motor (Charts)'s massive restructuring plan.

Next week is unlikely to provide any aggressive evidence to the contrary. But with the Dow pushing up against 6-1/2 year highs hit in May and the other major gauges also treading near multi-month peaks, the bulls could find themselves at a bit of a standstill. Or even a retreat.

"We've had a really good run, but all good runs are subject to reversal," said John Davidson, president and CEO at PartnerRe Asset Management. "It's too early to say that the rally is going to continue."

In its statement following each meeting, the Federal Reserve has often cautioned investors that future policy moves will be data dependent. Davidson says further gains for stocks in the next few weeks will be similarly tied to what the economic data say about the economy.

In the week ahead, the two biggest factors for investors will be the reports on the housing market due Tuesday (see chart for details), and most importantly, the Fed policy meeting Wednesday. (Full story)

A few companies also report earnings, but the period of releasing corporate results doesn't really heat up until early October. Companies on the docket next week include Oracle (Charts), Circuit City (Charts), Morgan Stanley (Charts), FedEx (Charts), Nike (Charts) and KB Home (Charts). (see chart for details).

The Federal Reserve Board, meeting Wednesday, is widely expected to keep short-term interest rates unchanged at 5.25 percent, just like it did at the Aug. 8 policy meeting.

That August meeting marked a change from the 17 that preceded it, when the central bank hiked interest rates a quarter-percentage point at a time from a low of 1 percent, in an effort to slow down the then-booming economy.

The impact of the most recent of those rate hikes is still being felt, meanwhile inflationary pressures seem to be easing of late, making it extremely unlikely that the Fed will feel compelled to raise rates again anytime soon, analysts say.

As is often the case, that means the focus is on the statement that accompanies the decision. More likely than not, the statement will look similar to the one issued in August, said Matthew Smith, portfolio manager at Smith Affiliated Capital.

In the statement accompanying the August meeting, the central bankers essentially said that a slowing economy should eventually take the upward pressure off inflation, and that therefore they could pause for the time being.

"We'll see the same rhetoric next week," Smith said. "A holding pattern is in place for now, but they'll see where inflation goes."

One thing the statement is not likely to do, which could be disappointing for some investors - is hint that the Fed is done with rate hikes.

That's because even with the recent retreat in energy prices, inflationary pressures remain in place.

"We expect them to keep their options open," said Joshua Shapiro, chief economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. "People looking for dovish verbiage in the statement may be disappointed."

And a so-called hawkish tone to the statement is a potential risk to continued stocks gains in the short term. Tuesday's housing market reports could further unnerve investors - or give them an excuse to take profits off the rally.

Meanwhile, other risks remain for stocks. "Bond yields have been coming down, which is good for the stock market and good for the real estate market," said Smith. "Yet, you still have the effects of the last 12 months of interest-rate hikes that have to work through the economy, huge deficits, and weaker earnings estimates for the third quarter."

There's also the seasonal factors: not only is September a typically tough month, but next week in particular is often rough. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the Dow posted losses in the third full week of September in 12 out of the last 15 years.

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