Back to work

Investors returning from a long Thanksgiving holiday weekend are set to feast upon a bevy of key economic reports.

By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Investors rolling back in after a long Thanksgiving holiday weekend best be ready to hit the ground running: the week ahead is a busy one.

Technically, financial markets were only closed Thursday, for the official Thanksgiving holiday. But the shortened Friday stock session had low enough trading volume to make it pretty clear that many Wall Street professionals skipped out for a four-day holiday weekend.

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Stocks didn't do much in the days right before Thanksgiving, but the week ahead could be different.

Reports are due this week on everything from consumer confidence to gross domestic product growth to the housing market to manufacturing (see table). The Federal Reserve releases its "beige book" periodical survey of the economy.

Investors will also get more detailed feedback from the nation's retailers on how consumers began the critical holiday shopping period. So far, early reports have been mixed. (Full story).

Yet, since bottoming in July, stocks have been on a tear, and some market analysts are worried that a pullback is long overdue. Could one of next week's many key economic reports be the trigger?

"I am looking for the market to absorb some of this rally we've seen since summer," said Barry Hyman, equity strategist at EKN Financial Services. "Although I think it will be more of a sector story in terms of where you see the weakness, rather than the overall market."

In terms of sectors, he noted that retail and energy stocks have had a big run up since the summer, and could be vulnerable, while a number of technology stocks would seem to have more room to run.

However, he noted that many Wall Street analysts have been calling for a correction for some time, and yet the stock market keeps charging ahead, speaking to the underlying bullishness.

Keeping the rally going

On one hand, the factors that have been moving the market higher since July remain in place, said Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co.

Catalysts he cited included bullish corporate earnings - which grew more than 18 percent in the third quarter; and supportive economic data - which have suggested an economy that is slowing, but not heading for recession, and that seems to be helping to slow inflation.

All of which supports bets that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and could even start cutting them some time next year.

"I would say the catalysts are there to move the market higher through the end of the year," Hogan said. "But will they continue to do so? Who knows?"

What might spark a pullback before the end of the year?

A weak holiday retail season could end up being the "canary in the coal mine" for the economy, as well as the stock market, wrote Barry Ritholtz, chief investment officer at Ritholtz Capital Partners in a note this week.

Alternately, a discouraging inflation report or anything that suggests the economy is slowing more than has been anticipated could trigger a stock decline.

But so far, that hasn't been the case, said EKN's Hyman, noting that new money continues to move into the market, and the economy and inflation have yet to throw a monkey wrench at investors.


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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.