Job Forecast: Steady - but cautious

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. employers are set to enter the new year with a steady - if more cautious - hiring pace, according to a survey released Tuesday.

Twenty-three percent of the 14,000 employers polled in the quarterly Manpower Employment Outlook Survey expect to add to their payrolls during the first quarter of 2007, while 11 percent anticipate cutbacks and 6 percent expect no change.

"Although the U.S. employment outlook remains stable, hiring managers are leaning toward a softened job pace, which you can see by the subtle decline in confidence in the last two quarters of survey results," said Jonas Prising, President of Manpower (Charts) North America.

"This is by no means a dramatic shift in employer sentiment, but it does indicate that companies are giving more thought to posting help wanted notices," Prising said.

The strongest job prospects are expected in the Northeast, while in the Midwest it is expected to be the same as the previous quarter.

In four of the 10 industry sectors surveyed, including construction, durable goods, and finance/insurance/real estate, employers expect weaker hiring activity in the first three months of 2007 versus the final quarter of 2006.

"The finance/insurance/real estate sector was one of the strongest performers in the survey throughout most of 2006, but the first quarter forecast for 2007 indicates a significant change in attitude," Prising said. "Employers in this sector reported the weakest hiring expectations, making job prospects much tighter than in recent years."

In a separate survey released Monday by Robert Half Technology, chief information officers in the information technology sector (IT) expect to see the largest net increase in hiring levels since 2001 in the first quarter of 2007. The independent research firm found 16 percent of executives polled plan to add IT staff in the next three months, while 2 percent expect to cut staff levels.

"A low unemployment rate, combined with ongoing demand for highly skilled professionals, is resulting in a strong need for IT specialists at all levels," said Katherine Spencer Lee, executive director of Robert Half Technology.

Internationally, employers surveyed were optimistic about adding to their workforces in first quarter of 2007, according to Manpower. Twenty of 23 countries reported more robust hiring plans than one year ago.

"The global labor market looks set for a positive start to 2007 with employers in most of Europe and Asia planning to increase hiring compared to the first quarter of 2006, and the U.S. job market continuing to plug along at a steady pace," said Jeffrey Joerres, Chairman & CEO of Manpower Inc.

The survey was expanded to Argentina this quarter where hiring expectations are among the strongest in the survey.

Of the six countries surveyed in the Americas, Peruvian employers are the most optimistic about adding to their workforces. Employers in the remaining countries expect continued positive hiring activity.

The most optimistic hiring expectations for the first quarter are in Peru, Singapore, India, Argentina, South Africa, Costa Rica, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

Employers in Belgium, Costa Rica, Peru, Ireland, Japan, Spain, Switzerland and South Africa are reporting their most positive hiring plans since the survey began in these countries.

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