CNNMoney.com
Companies Economy International Corrections Pre-market Trading After-hours Trading Winners/Losers/Actives Bonds Currencies Commodities World Markets Money Magazine Real Estate Taxes Jobs Ask the Expert Money 101 Autos Mutual Funds The Help Desk Loan Center Best Places to Live Ask the Expert Ultimate Guide to Retirement Retirement Calculators Best Funds Ask the Mole Best Places to Retire Big Tech Blog Techland Blog Sectors and Stocks Fortune 500 Techs Tech Talk 100 Best Places to Launch Ultimate Resource Guide Small Biz Makeovers FSB 100 Ask & Answer Fortune 500 Technology Investing Management C-Suite Rankings Main Create Portfolio Edit Portfolio Create Alerts Edit Alerts
TRADING
CENTER

Wall Street pessimists cashing in

The first half of the year was bad for most stock investors, unless you opted to bet against the dollar and the consumer - and for rising inflation.

EMAIL  |   PRINT  |   SHARE  |   RSS
 
google my aol my msn my yahoo! netvibes
Paste this link into your favorite RSS desktop reader
See all CNNMoney.com RSS FEEDS (close)
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer

Which is the worst aspect of our dependence on oil?
  • Environmental damage
  • Lack of financial independence
  • National security
first_half_winnerslosers2.jpg

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Golf claps for the stock market Scrooges. As a dicey first half comes to an end, the investors who fared the best were the ones who bet on the worst.

That betting pool included a prolonged bloodletting for the housing and credit markets, a weak U.S. dollar, and an ongoing surge in oil and gas prices.

"You can't look to the economy to drive stocks right now," said Len Blum, managing director at Westwood Capital. "Autos, financials and anything cyclical has been negative and the outlook is bleak. But I think you can find some gems if you look through the rubble."

A weak dollar can boost big blue chips.

That may seem far-fetched considering Thursday's market - in which the Dow lost 358 points and hit a 21-month low on rising oil prices, a weaker dollar, slumping automakers and more woes for the bank sector. (Full story).

While the 30-share Dow Jones industrial average closed at its lowest level since September 2006 Thursday, that was largely due to the two-quarter pummeling of its five financial, one automaker and two drugmaker stocks.

In the same two quarters, components Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) and Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) did well. So did global brands like McDonald's (MCD, Fortune 500) and Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500), reflecting a first-half trend that is expected to continue.

That's because companies that do a lot of business overseas benefit from a weak U.S. currency. Those firms, for the most part, will do better under the current economic circumstances than companies that are dependent on the U.S. consumer and U.S. industry, analysts say.

Haag Sherman, managing director at Salient Partners, said he's continuing to favor large U.S. corporations that derive a portion of their profits from overseas.

"The silver lining of a declining dollar is our export industries are booming and will continue to boom," he said. Sherman also noted that companies that deal with infrastructure building with a global bent, like Caterpillar, will continue to do well because of the demand from emerging markets.

Commodity stocks reflect commodity prices.

Rocketing oil prices, which Friday surged to a record $142.26 a barrel, have been reflective of a broader first-half rally in commodity prices driven by a combination of speculators and global demand.

While that was bad news for consumers and many areas of the economy in the first half - it was good news for any company in fuel-related businesses.

Of the 25 biggest S&P 500 gainers in the first half, 17 were energy - including coal firm Massey Energy (MEE), oil services company Nabors Industries (NBR) and natural gas firm EOG Resources (EOG).

Commodity prices could be volatile through the rest of the year, but the trend is generally expected to remain up. And that means those stocks are likely to continue rising in the second half.

An OPEC official said Thursday that prices could hit $170 this summer. And Goldman Sachs recently upgraded the oilfield services sector, predicting strong profit growth amid higher prices and more drilling activity.

Stealth winners

"Commodities are big for us," said Matt King, chief investment strategist at Bell Investment Advisors. "Investors need to hedge their portfolios right now against inflation."

The best-performing industries in the first half were trucking (up 50.2%), coal (up 41.5%), oil and gas (up 30%), steel (up 27.5%) and railroads (up 25.5%). But other areas held up too, such as brewers (up 16.4%) and biotech (up 9.5%).

Of the ten sectors tracked by Standard & Poor's, the best performers in the first half were energy (up 6.5%), and materials (up 3.4%). The other eight posted losses, led by financials, which fell 25.1%.

Bond insurer MBIA (MBI) was the biggest S&P 500 loser in the first half, down 73.6%.

Commodities and transportation stocks led the list of biggest S&P 500 gainers in the first half. Other advancers included Big Lots (BIG, Fortune 500) (up 102.2%), Hasbro (HAS), (up 49.5%), Wrigley (WWY, Fortune 500), (up 33.9%) and LSI Logic (LSI) (+27.5%). To top of page

Features
Markets Last Change
Dow Jones 8,238.72 -42.02 / -0.51%
Nasdaq 1,778.12 -18.40 / -1.02%
S&P 500 890.56 -5.86 / -0.65%
10-year Bond 96 18/32 Yield: 3.54%
U.S.Dollar 1 euro = $1.391 -0.005
July 6, 2009 10:19 AM ET
CompanyPrice% Change
General Motors Corp 0.74 -9.89%
CIT Group Inc 1.84 -7.54%
Eastman Kodak Co 2.90 7.41%
Tenneco Inc 9.36 -6.87%
Jul 6 10:15am ET †
Thriving in hard times Amid the Great Recession, these companies are growing fast by offering services buyers can't go without -- like life-saving medical breakthroughs. More
FSB 100: Where are they now? We check back in with several of last year's FSB 100 companies to find out if their torrid growth has continued. More
5 small stocks ready to soar The FSB 100 is filled with fast growers, but money managers picked these 5 small-caps as stocks with especially bright prospects. More


© 2009 Cable News Network. A Time Warner Company. All Rights Reserved. Terms under which this service is provided to you. Privacy Policy
Copyright © 2009 BigCharts.com Inc. All rights reserved. Please see our Terms of Use.
MarketWatch, the MarketWatch logo, and BigCharts are registered trademarks of MarketWatch, Inc.
Intraday data provided by Interactive Data Real-Time Services and subject to the Terms of Use.
Intraday data is at least 20-minutes delayed. All times are ET.
Historical, current end-of-day data, and splits data provided by Interactive Data Pricing and Reference Data.
Fundamental data provided by Morningstar, Inc..
SEC Filings data provided by Edgar Online Inc..
Earnings data provided by FactSet CallStreet, LLC.