Confessions of a former real estate bull
As chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, David Lereah was famously optimistic. Now a private consultant, he's abandoned what he calls the 'positive spin.'
| 30 yr fixed mtg | 5.28% |
| 15 yr fixed mtg | 4.59% |
| 30 yr fixed jumbo mtg | 6.02% |
| 5/1 ARM | 4.42% |
| 5/1 jumbo ARM | 4.71% |
(Money Magazine) -- Q. Were you wrong to be so bullish?
A. I worked for an association promoting housing, and it was my job to represent their interests. If you look at my actual forecasts, the numbers were right in line with most forecasts. The difference was that I put a positive spin on it. It was easy to do during boom times, harder when times weren't good. I never thought the whole national real estate market would burst.
Q. The NAR's latest forecast calls for a slight increase in home prices next year. Thoughts?
A. My views are quite different now. I'm pretty bearish and have been for the past year and a half. Home prices will continue to drop. I think we'll see a very modest recovery in sales activity in 2009. But we've still got excess inventories, a bad economy and a credit crunch that will push prices down further, another 5% to 10% more. It'll take a long time to get back to the peak prices we saw in many markets.
Q. Any regrets?
A. I would not have done anything different. But I was a public spokesman writing about housing having a good future. I was wrong. I have to take responsibility for that.
Is this a good time to prepay our mortgage?
4 lessons from the financial crisis
The best time to buy a home 
Send feedback to Money Magazine
-
The Becerras spoiled themselves with a puppy. Here's what 6 other readers are indulging on. More -
Santa is no part-time gig for these St. Nicks. Meet the hardest working Santas in the business. More -
More people can't afford their pets, and shelters struggle to keep up with the influx. Play -
The house on Hawaii's big island should fetch near $12 million. More -
Small automakers are beating the Big 3 in the race for sweet new rides. More -
Lauren Bush's FEED project lands her on Fortune's Most Powerful Women Entrepreneurs list. More -
Production is starting on the world's most luxe ocean liner: The Utopia. More
