Confessions of a former real estate bull
As chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, David Lereah was famously optimistic. Now a private consultant, he's abandoned what he calls the 'positive spin.'
| 30 yr fixed mtg | 5.02% |
| 15 yr fixed mtg | 4.60% |
| 30 yr fixed jumbo mtg | 5.89% |
| 5/1 ARM | 4.09% |
| 5/1 jumbo ARM | 4.77% |
(Money Magazine) -- Q. Were you wrong to be so bullish?
A. I worked for an association promoting housing, and it was my job to represent their interests. If you look at my actual forecasts, the numbers were right in line with most forecasts. The difference was that I put a positive spin on it. It was easy to do during boom times, harder when times weren't good. I never thought the whole national real estate market would burst.
Q. The NAR's latest forecast calls for a slight increase in home prices next year. Thoughts?
A. My views are quite different now. I'm pretty bearish and have been for the past year and a half. Home prices will continue to drop. I think we'll see a very modest recovery in sales activity in 2009. But we've still got excess inventories, a bad economy and a credit crunch that will push prices down further, another 5% to 10% more. It'll take a long time to get back to the peak prices we saw in many markets.
Q. Any regrets?
A. I would not have done anything different. But I was a public spokesman writing about housing having a good future. I was wrong. I have to take responsibility for that.
Is this a good time to prepay our mortgage?
4 lessons from the financial crisis
The best time to buy a home 
Send feedback to Money Magazine
-
Minimum wage to $20 an hour. That's what Sally Delk hopes for with a job at the nuclear power plant. More -
Charlotte Street was the epicenter of urban blight. No longer. Now Bimmers and boats fill driveways. More -
Ex-convicts like Gregory Headley are 'at the back of the line' in the struggle to find work. More -
Steve Jobs revived Apple, defying the worst economic conditions since the Great Depression. More -
Consumers looking to buy electronics for holiday gifts won't have to break the bank this season. More -
Search firm says it will pay the bill for wireless Internet during the holidays. More -
Twitter and LinkedIn hook up, signing agreement to let users share information across both platforms. More
