Breaking Views

Fed moves spark bubble fears

With no end in sight to ulta-low rates, the Federal Reserve risks inflating asset and commodity prices and sinking the dollar.

EMAIL  |   PRINT  |   SHARE  |   RSS
 
google my aol my msn my yahoo! netvibes
Paste this link into your favorite RSS desktop reader
See all CNNMoney.com RSS FEEDS (close)
By Martin Hutchinson, breakingviews.com

(breakingviews.com) -- The Federal Open Market Committee in its statement November 4 left unchanged the language that its ultra-low rates would be kept for "an extended period". By not even signaling an end to the current era of easy money, the central bank runs the risk of further inflating asset and commodity prices and sinking the dollar.

The Fed's mandate is to keep inflation and employment stable. It's hard to see how avoiding bubbles -- and the crashes that accompany them -- shouldn't be central to its mission.

By the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978, the Fed must maintain long-run growth, minimize inflation and maintain price stability. As the events of 2007-09 demonstrated, in order to achieve these goals it helps to avoid bubbles, the bursting of which makes prices unstable and causes unemployment.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan used to claim that it was impossible to recognize a bubble in progress, but that does not preclude the Fed's responsibility to prevent them from developing.

Currently, stock prices are up 50% from their lows, oil prices are above $80 a barrel and the gold price has surged to close to $1,100 an ounce. Global monetary conditions have been exceptionally accommodative for over a year, with Chinese M2 money supply up 29.3% in the year to September, for example.

All of which suggests the substantial probability of a bubble developing, whether or not it can be detected in progress. The bursting of such a bubble, at a time of large global budget deficits, could prove highly destructive to economic growth and employment.

So the Fed's lack of action -- either in word or deed -- seems incautious. It may believe that raising interest rates would abort the incipient U.S. economic recovery and that removing quantitative easing could cause a liquidity crisis given the huge U.S. budget deficit.

However, removing the language promising to keep interest rates low for an "extended period" could have no real economic effect, but would warn the markets that the Fed is aware of the potential bubble. Sometimes two words can make all the difference. To top of page

Company Price Change % Change
Bank of America Corp... 16.77 0.06 0.36%
Apple Inc 101.58 0.75 0.74%
Yahoo! Inc 42.59 -0.12 -0.28%
Microsoft Corp 46.52 -0.24 -0.51%
Alcoa Inc 16.28 0.12 0.74%
Data as of Sep 17
Index Last Change % Change
Dow 17,156.85 24.88 0.15%
Nasdaq 4,562.19 9.43 0.21%
S&P 500 2,001.57 2.59 0.13%
Treasuries 2.60 0.01 0.42%
Data as of 7:56am ET
More Galleries
15 top executives with $1 salaries Some CEOs and founders agree to salaries of just $1 a year. But once goodies like bonuses and stock options are added in, some of those executives end up taking home many millions of dollars a year. More
Mercedes SL65 AMG: 621 horses of topless power Turn heads as you blow by traffic in this roadster convertible from Mercedes. More
Where the middle class is most unequal CNNMoney looks at the five states with the biggest differences in middle class incomes. More
Worry about the hackers you don't know 
Crime syndicates and government organizations pose a much greater cyber threat than renegade hacker groups like Anonymous. Play
GE CEO: Bringing jobs back to the U.S. 
Jeff Immelt says the U.S. is a cost competitive market for advanced manufacturing and that GE is bringing jobs back from Mexico. Play
Hamster wheel and wedgie-powered transit 
Red Bull Creation challenges hackers and engineers to invent new modes of transportation. Play

Market indexes are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer Morningstar: © 2014 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Disclaimer The Dow Jones IndexesSM are proprietary to and distributed by Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and have been licensed for use. All content of the Dow Jones IndexesSM © 2014 is proprietary to Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Chicago Mercantile Association. The market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2014. All rights reserved. Most stock quote data provided by BATS.