CAFÉ Wars: Bumpy road for the Detroit Three

(Fortune) -- Like baseball, figuring out the auto industry has become easier with the use of statistics.

Securities analysts have for years used mathematical models to forecast vehicle production rates and compute expected profit per unit minus overhead.

Those calculations are equivalent to traditional baseball measurements of batting average and runs batted in: helpful directionally but subject to distortion.

About a decade ago, analyst John Casesa, then with Merrill Lynch, came up with a way to forecast sales by measuring the pace of product development. The faster a manufacturer turned over its product line, the more robust its market share would be.

In its way, Casesa's calculation was as revolutionary as the statisticians who created figures for on-base percentage and runs created.

Now Csaba Csere, former editor-in-chief of Car & Driver, writing in the enthusiast monthly, has presented a new set of figures that provide important insight into the strategy and prospects of Western automakers.

At issue is the ease -- or difficulty -- they will face in meeting corporate average fuel economy standards (CAFÉ) in 2016. The new standards will represent the biggest change since the law was created 35 years ago.

Cars must improve from 27.5 miles per gallon to 37.8 mpg, and trucks have to go from 23.5 mpg to 28.8 mpg.

So cars must get an average of 37% better mileage and trucks 23%. But some manufacturers must take much bigger leaps than others, which will require significant changes in strategy and tactics.

Exhibit number one is Jaguar/Land Rover. According to Csere's math, Jag has to get 39.9% thriftier, which is difficult enough for a brand that depends on performance. But Land Rover, which makes big, heavy SUVs, has to improve by 62.2%. That's unimaginable with its current product line, which makes you wonder what its new owner, India's Tata, has in mind.

Exhibit number two is BMW, which will be looking for a 36.1% car increase. The Bavarian automaker will have to be clever to meet the standard while protecting its brand. The pressure to do so could well drive it into a merger with a volume automaker with lower numbers.

The top-tier Japanese brands are exceptionally well-positioned. Toyota (TM) only needs a 5.6% boost in cars, Honda 7.2%, and Nissan 16.9%.

Korea's automakers are in a good place, too. Hyundai needs to pull its car fleet up just 11.7% and Kia by 12.8%

But second-tier Japanese companies face challenges. Subaru needs to climb 36.2%, Mitsubishi 29%, and Suzuki 29%.

And Detroit's Big Three start from back in the pack. Ford (F, Fortune 500) will be looking for a 22.4% increase in car mileage, General Motors 24.1% and Chrysler 25.3%.

On the truck side, the numbers are only slightly less daunting. Ford needs a 19.1% improvement, GM 19.3%, and Chrysler 22.9%.

How will they get there? There are no silver bullets. Improving fuel economy won't be easy -- or cheap. Lighter-weight materials will have to be substituted, aerodynamics improved, and tires developed with lower rolling resistance.

More important are a whole range of engine and transmission technologies. Csere identifies half a dozen, including variable valve lift, direct injection, and cylinder deactivation.

Nowhere does he mention full hybrids, battery power, or fuel cells. Like many in the industry, Csere believes that the internal combustion engine will remain dominant for the foreseeable future.

"The reality is that for all the concern about these rules, the industry can meet them with largely conventional technology," he says. "And since upgraded engines are cheaper than more exotic technologies, that's what we're going to get."

Cheaper, but not free. Csere cites government estimates that the new regs will hike the price of an average 2016 model by $926. But that may be conservative.

As manufacturers slow production of high-profit but fuel-thirsty SUVs and pickup trucks to meet fuel economy standards, they will be looking to recover their margins by raising the price of the rest of the vehicles in their lineup.

That means even higher prices for consumers.