NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil once again trailed below $80 a barrel Wednesday, as investors mulled over dismal economic news from China, a bearish forecast from the Federal Reserve and a stronger dollar.
What prices are doing: After a brief upswing above $80 last week, oil once again traded in the high $70s -- where it has stayed the last three months -- as investors look to negative economic data as signs of a slowdown that could curb demand for fuel.
Crude for September delivery fell $2.23, or 2.8%, settling at $78.02 Wednesday.
Signs of weakness hit oil: On Wednesday, China reported its lowest industrial output numbers and its highest level of inflation in nearly a year. The country also reported a monthly decline in retail sales.
The data supports fears of a global economic slowdown and comes just one day after a separate gloomy report from China. On Tuesday, the country said its trade surplus ballooned to an 18-month high of $28.7 billion in July as slowing economic growth pressured imports.
Meanwhile, investors are still mulling over the Federal Reserve's announcement on Tuesday that it will buy additional long-term Treasurys as a way of stimulating the sputtering U.S. recovery. The central bank's statement that the recovery will be "more modest" than previously expected marked its most bearish stance in about a year.
The dollar strengthened against the euro and pound on the news because of its safe-haven appeal. That sent oil lower, because oil is priced in dollars like other commodities, so a stronger greenback lowers its price.
Supply and demand: On the other side of the equation -- the latest demand forecasts would actually seem to support a price increase for oil -- but that data has taken a backseat to concerns about the economy.
Both the International Energy Agency, which advises 28 industrialized countries, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration recently upwardly revised their forecasts for world crude demand. But at the same time, IEA also warned that a weaker economic recovery could cut global demand.
Meanwhile, U.S. supply trends last week were mixed.
Crude supplies fell by 3 million barrels in the week ending August 6, the government said Wednesday. That's a greater dip than the 2.4 million fall analysts surveyed by research firm Platts had expected.
But gasoline inventories increased by 400,000 barrels, whereas analysts had expected a drop of 1.5 million barrels. Distillates, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, increased by 3.5 million barrels -- far more than the 1.1 million barrel increase analysts forecasted for the week.
Hurricanes: August marks the middle of hurricane season, and oil traders are watching for any brewing tropical storms that could cut U.S. oil production and drive prices up.
The Atlantic Basin remains on track for an active hurricane season -- which runs June 1 to November 3 -- the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Thursday.
|Overnight Avg Rate||Latest||Change||Last Week|
|30 yr fixed||3.80%||3.80%|
|15 yr fixed||3.02%||3.02%|
|30 yr refi||3.78%||3.78%|
|15 yr refi||3.00%||3.00%|
Today's featured rates:
A federal judge says Ivanka Trump must give a deposition in a lawsuit brought against her by an Italian shoemaker claiming her fashion label copied its designs. More
Orlando Lopez's parents brought him to the U.S. seeking the American Dream, but he didn't find true happiness until after he was deported to Mexico. More
You'll still see ads in Gmail but they won't be inspired by your emails. More
In 1998, Ntsiki Biyela won a scholarship to study wine making. Now she's about to launch her own brand. More
The average guest at a wedding last year spent $888 per wedding, according to a study from the Knot. For those in the wedding party, the price of being a stand-up friend was over $1,000. More