Initial unemployment claims tick back up

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The number of Americans filing for their first week of unemployment benefits ticked up again last week, after falling to the lowest level in two years the week before.

The number of initial claims rose to 436,000 last week, up 26,000 from a revised 410,000 claims filed the week before, the Labor Department said Thursday.

The number was disappointing for a couple of reasons. It meant more Americans filed for unemployment benefits, and it was a bigger increase than economists had expected. Forecasts from Briefing.com had expected initial claims to rise to 422,000.

But experts weren't quick to take one week's worth of data as an entirely dismal sign.

"The overall movement is in the right direction. It will be slow, and a bit of a plod going forward, but we are heading up," said Daniel Penrod, senior industry analyst with the California Credit Union League.

Penrod points to the four-week moving average as at least one encouraging sign from the report. The average, which is calculated to smooth out volatility, totaled 431,000 last week, down from the previous week's revised average of 436,750, and was at its lowest level since August 2008.

He's seeing business owners getting their feet wet by hiring part-time or temp workers, instead of committing to full-time hires. Many businesses are still uncertain about the strength of the recovery going forward and looking for consistently strong demand before they'll dive in to full hiring.

According to most economists, weekly initial claims need to drop below 400,000 to signal improvement in the job market, and before the stubbornly high unemployment rate -- which currently stands at 9.6% -- can drop significantly.

It neared that crossover point two weeks ago, when it reached 410,000, the lowest level since July 2008.

Since last year, the initial claims figure has bounced around in the the mid to upper 400,000s and even ticked slightly above 500,000 in mid-August.

The number of people continuing to file unemployment claims for a second week or more rose to 4,270,000 during the week ended Nov. 20, the most recent data available. That's up 53,000 from a revised 4,217,000 the week before.

The report came as discouraging news ahead of the government's monthly jobs report, due Friday.

Economists surveyed by CNNMoney.com expect Friday's report to show the economy added 150,000 jobs in November, down slightly from the 151,000 jobs added in October.