The 'new normal' unemployment rate: 6.7%

By Annalyn Censky, staff reporter


NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Economists used to say an unemployment rate around 5% was normal, but the recession may have changed all that.

The new norm may now be more like 6.7%, according to a paper released by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Monday.

The report comes amid much discussion about what the "new normal" should be. Unemployment has remained above 9% for 21 straight months, and economists and policymakers, including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, have repeatedly said it's likely to remain high through the next several years.

And that spurs experts to ask, is high unemployment a permanent economic condition, or merely a temporary phenomenon?

Experts at the San Francisco Fed say a higher rate is probably temporary, but driven by some deep-seated structural issues.

Unemployment is staying high partly because of a mismatch between workers' skills and what employers are looking for, say John Williams, an executive vice president at the San Francisco Fed, and research associate Justin Weidner.

Roughly 44% of the unemployed have been out of a job for more than six months. Their skills deteriorate and it becomes even harder to find a job.

Add to that the housing bust, which left millions of homeowners underwater on their mortgages, and it's harder for workers to relocate to places where jobs are growing more rapidly.

All those factors may have raised the "normal" unemployment rate, Williams and Weidner say.

They also point to jobless benefits, which Congress has extended from 26 weeks to 99 weeks.

While those extended benefits help struggling families get by, "they may also reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs," Williams and Weidner say. To top of page

Just the hot list include
Frontline troops push for solar energy
The U.S. Marines are testing renewable energy technologies like solar to reduce costs and casualties associated with fossil fuels. Play
25 Best Places to find rich singles
Looking for Mr. or Ms. Moneybags? Hunt down the perfect mate in these wealthy cities, which are brimming with unattached professionals. More
Fun festivals: Twins to mustard to pirates!
You'll see double in Twinsburg, Ohio, and Ketchup lovers should beware in Middleton, WI. Here's some of the best and strangest town festivals. Play
Index Last Change % Change
Dow 32,627.97 -234.33 -0.71%
Nasdaq 13,215.24 99.07 0.76%
S&P 500 3,913.10 -2.36 -0.06%
Treasuries 1.73 0.00 0.12%
Data as of 6:29am ET
Company Price Change % Change
Ford Motor Co 8.29 0.05 0.61%
Advanced Micro Devic... 54.59 0.70 1.30%
Cisco Systems Inc 47.49 -2.44 -4.89%
General Electric Co 13.00 -0.16 -1.22%
Kraft Heinz Co 27.84 -2.20 -7.32%
Data as of 2:44pm ET
Sponsors

Sections

Bankrupt toy retailer tells bankruptcy court it is looking at possibly reviving the Toys 'R' Us and Babies 'R' Us brands. More

Land O'Lakes CEO Beth Ford charts her career path, from her first job to becoming the first openly gay CEO at a Fortune 500 company in an interview with CNN's Boss Files. More

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.