NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The yield on the 10-year Treasury is back to where it was a year ago, almost down to the exact day.
On Thursday, Treasuries edged lower, pushing the 10-year yield up to 3.21% in midday trading. That yield closed at 3.21% on May 20.....2010.
Are bond traders experiencing déjà vu?
Remember that in May 2010, the economy was on shaky ground and investor fear was high. Europe's debt woes were in the headlines day after day, and "uncertainty" was the buzz word surrounding everything from Congress' fiscal plans to the Federal Reserve's stance on monetary policy.
Sound familiar?
"The more things change, the more things seem to stay the same," said Kim Rupert, a fixed income analyst with Action Economics.
While the job market has started to improve and companies posted solid earnings in the beginning of the year, the latest round of economic data show the U.S. recovery continues to be far from robust.
Meanwhile, Europe's debt crisis is still in the headlines, and some new events -- like revolutions in the Middle East and Japan's earthquake -- have increased risks to the global economy.
And after commodities surged, but then started retreating, economists and the financial markets don't seem to have a clear sense of where inflation is headed.
All eyes are still glued on Washington, uncertain of how Congress will deal with the debt ceiling and how the Federal Reserve will act after its latest round of stimulus runs out in June.
"There's definitely a level of uncertainty, and everyone is making their predictions --- but it all depends what camp you're in," said Kenneth Naehu, managing director and head of fixed income at Bel Air Investment Advisors.
As for what camp both he and Rupert are in -- they both think the 10-year yield should head higher later this year, driven in part by fears about the growing U.S. deficit.
"I'm looking for yields to head back up," Rupert said. "But then again, I've been looking for that for a year."
Index | Last | Change | % Change |
---|---|---|---|
Dow | 32,627.97 | -234.33 | -0.71% |
Nasdaq | 13,215.24 | 99.07 | 0.76% |
S&P 500 | 3,913.10 | -2.36 | -0.06% |
Treasuries | 1.73 | 0.00 | 0.12% |
Company | Price | Change | % Change |
---|---|---|---|
Ford Motor Co | 8.29 | 0.05 | 0.61% |
Advanced Micro Devic... | 54.59 | 0.70 | 1.30% |
Cisco Systems Inc | 47.49 | -2.44 | -4.89% |
General Electric Co | 13.00 | -0.16 | -1.22% |
Kraft Heinz Co | 27.84 | -2.20 | -7.32% |
Overnight Avg Rate | Latest | Change | Last Week |
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30 yr fixed | 3.80% | 3.88% | |
15 yr fixed | 3.20% | 3.23% | |
5/1 ARM | 3.84% | 3.88% | |
30 yr refi | 3.82% | 3.93% | |
15 yr refi | 3.20% | 3.23% |
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