Recession warnings on the rise

@CNNMoney August 3, 2011: 11:13 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- There are growing warnings that the United States could fall into a new recession, even with its debt ceiling crisis finally behind it.

Economists have been ringing alarm bells after disappointing readings on some key economic indicators, including those measuring consumer spending, manufacturing, job cuts and gross domestic product.

And this Friday's closely-watched jobs report isn't likely to be much better. Economists surveyed by CNNMoney forecast a gain of only 75,000, with unemployment expected to remain at 9.2%.

Investors are increasingly worried about the state of the economy, sending stocks into a slide. The Dow Jones industrial average opened lower again Wednesday, the day after the blue chip index tumbled 266 points, while the S&P 500 slipped into negative territory for the year.

Martin Feldstein and Larry Summers, two leading economists from opposite political camps, both made comments Wednesday suggesting a significant threat of a new recession.

Feldstein, a top economic adviser to both President Ronald Reagan and President George W. Bush during the 2000 election, told Bloomberg that he believes the country now faces a 50% chance of a new recession.

"This economy is really balanced on the edge," he said. "Nothing has given us much growth. The economy has been flat to down since the beginning of the year."

Feldstein's current outlook is similar to his view in January 2008, when he was one of the first economists to declare the start of the recession that would last more than two years.

Feldstein is also a former president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and he serves on the committee of that group, which makes the official determination for when recessions begin and end.

He said housing continues to be a major drag on the economy and that all the policy responses so far have been a failure.

Summers, who was Treasury Secretary under President Clinton and the first director of the National Economic Council under President Obama, wrote an opinion article for Reuters arguing that the economy is already at "stall speed." Summers said that without a policy response to the current economic weakness, there is a one-in-three chance of a new recession.

"The United States's current problem is much more a jobs and growth deficit than an excessive budget deficit," he said.

He argued that extending the current payroll tax holiday due to expire at the end of this year, as well as an extension of unemployment benefits and more spending on maintaining infrastructure, are all needed to spur greater economic demand. To top of page

Overnight Avg Rate Latest Change Last Week
30 yr fixed3.80%3.88%
15 yr fixed3.20%3.23%
5/1 ARM3.84%3.88%
30 yr refi3.82%3.93%
15 yr refi3.20%3.23%
Rate data provided
by Bankrate.com
View rates in your area
 
Find personalized rates:
Economic Calendar
Latest ReportNext Update
Home pricesAug 28
Consumer confidenceAug 28
GDPAug 29
Manufacturing (ISM)Sept 4
JobsSept 7
Inflation (CPI)Sept 14
Retail sales Sept 14
  • -->

    Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.