Why old media stocks are on top today

  @Money November 27, 2012: 5:30 AM ET
inv 12 old vs new media

Stocks of traditional news and entertainment companies are besting new media upstarts.

NEW YORK (Money Magazine)

Big media companies were supposed to die outright along with the old tube TV set.

At least that was the thinking a few years ago as up-and-comers Netflix (NFLX) and Hulu let you bypass commercials, and Facebook (FB) and YouTube made it possible to create and share your own material.

Given that, the recent performance of old- vs. new-media stocks might surprise you.

This year the legacy players have shot up 34%, more than twice the gain of the S&P 500. Yet Facebook has fallen 45% since it went public in May. Why are the old guys ahead?

In short, Americans still like to watch television, especially live sporting events and buzzed-about series. Average time in front of the TV is up since 2003, from 2.6 hours a day to 2.8, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"TV-bypass is not a mainstream issue," says Bill Nygren, a portfolio manager at Oakmark Funds, who invests in several media stocks.

Related: 14 Money heroes: Their best financial advice

What's more, even as more consumers watch shows online, traditional media are finding ways to earn money off that shift by creating live streaming tools and cutting deals with Netflix and Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500). Social media firms, on the other hand, are still struggling to figure out a profitable business model.

Big-media stocks have gotten pricey, with the sector trading at 14.6 times forecast earnings for the next 12 months, compared with 13.5 for the S&P 500.

Don't be fooled, social media still risky

The good news is that for the strongest players, earnings are expected to grow faster than the S&P's in the coming years. So stick to these areas for growth worth the price.

Hook onto the cables

Cable-TV subscriptions are dropping off. But a high-speed connection has become a crucial service that consumers are willing to pay up for, says Ann Miletti, a senior portfolio manager at Wells Fargo Advantage Funds.

Broadband subs are as much as 110% more profitable than TV-only customers. That should be a boon to the two largest cable companies, Comcast (CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (TWC, Fortune 500). "Cable has proven to be flexible," says Miletti.

Also, with the high-speed cable infrastructure largely in place, broadband now generates a lot of cash. This year Comcast raised its dividend 44% and announced a plan to repurchase $6.5 billion in stock. Time Warner Cable raised its payout 17% and announced a $4 billion buyback.

At these two cable giants, those payouts have room to grow. Both firms spend less than 40% of their cash on dividends, far less than the 69% that competitor Cablevision (CVC, Fortune 500) spends.

Own in-demand networks

To cash in on the majority of Americans who still watch TV, favor broadcasters with must-have content.

As the owner of the most popular cable channel, ESPN, Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) has pricing clout with the satellite and cable companies that air the sports network. Through 2017, price hikes for ESPN and other Disney channels could boost that fee revenue by 7.6% a year, reports Credit Suisse. Another edge: Two-thirds of Disney's TV revenue comes from fees, not often-unpredictable ad sales.

Traditional broadcast networks are thought of as the industry laggards: too dependent on ads, audiences shrinking.

CBS (CBS, Fortune 500), a true pure play, is off 13% since the start of a disappointing fall TV season. But therein lies an opportunity. CBS leads its peers in potential syndication deals and has nine of the top 20 shows.

Related: Tips for investing in stocks

"The value of broadcast is enormous," says David Bank, equity research analyst at RBC Capital Markets. CBS is cashing in on that value as broadcasters are collecting more in cable and satellite fees. In 2011, CBS earned 33 cents a subscriber per month. Analysts expect that figure to top $1 in five years.

Spread your bets

If you don't want to make a bet on a single stock, diversify with a fund that invests in the sector. Fidelity Select Multimedia (FBMPX) is a good option. To get a boost from global growth, try T. Rowe Price Media & Telecommunications (PRMTX), which has 19% of its portfolio overseas. To top of page



Join the Conversation
Markets
Sponsored by
Index Last Change % Change
Dow 16,439.94 15.09 0.09%
Nasdaq 4,107.30 21.07 0.52%
S&P 500 1,868.56 6.25 0.34%
Treasuries 2.72 0.08 3.19%
Data as of 3:20pm ET
Company Price Change % Change
Bank of America Corp... 16.19 0.06 0.37%
Facebook Inc 59.25 -0.47 -0.79%
General Electric Co 26.72 0.60 2.30%
Micron Technology In... 23.93 1.45 6.45%
Cisco Systems Inc 23.20 0.17 0.74%
Data as of 3:05pm ET
Overnight Avg Rate Latest Change Last Week
30 yr fixed4.41%4.44%
15 yr fixed3.33%3.31%
5/1 ARM3.34%3.55%
30 yr refi4.39%4.41%
15 yr refi3.31%3.30%
View rates in your area
 
Find personalized rates:
Rate data provided
by Bankrate.com
Market indexes are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer LIBOR Warning: Neither BBA Enterprises Limited, nor the BBA LIBOR Contributor Banks, nor Reuters, can be held liable for any irregularity or inaccuracy of BBA LIBOR. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2014 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Disclaimer The Dow Jones IndexesSM are proprietary to and distributed by Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and have been licensed for use. All content of the Dow Jones IndexesSM © 2014 is proprietary to Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Chicago Mercantile Association. The market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2014. All rights reserved. Most stock quote data provided by BATS.