Party crasher: Tamping down some 2014 wishful thinking

  @FortuneMagazine January 3, 2014: 10:49 AM ET
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(Fortune)

After six years of recession and weak recovery, 2014 is the year when the U.S. economy returns to normalcy. Federal Reserve policymakers will end the state of emergency they declared after Lehman Brothers collapsed. Interest rates and GDP growth will pick up. Businesses will continue to expand their payrolls. The jobless rate will fall below 7%. The ranks of the long-term unemployed will thin out a bit. The stock market will continue on its heady ascent. The Great Recession and its dreary aftermath will finally be behind us.

All of this represents the conventional wisdom on Wall Street, and I agree with some of it. But a note of caution is also called for. What we are looking at is an overdue correction in economic policy and economic growth. Like all corrections, this one could well have some pain associated with it, particularly for investors, who have recently been enjoying the best of all worlds.

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