The debate is no longer about a soft vs. a hard landing, but how hard will the hard landing be. The recession train left the station in December. The recession will be severe because the U.S. consumer - whose spending makes up 70% of our GDP - is shopped-out, saving-less, and debt-burdened.
There is a rising risk of a systemic financial crisis. Avoid risky assets like equities, which could suffer a sudden market crash. You want to buy protection against this by buying options on the CBOE volatility index, known as the VIX, or on the S&P 500. Be careful with money market funds. Some could have meaningful exposure to securities backed by risky mortgages, or even auto loans or credit card loans, which are also high risk.
Finally, do not buy a home. The housing recession is not near the bottom and prices could fall by another 20% over another year and a half. If you buy now, you'll have a massive capital loss.
Last updated February 06 2008: 10:16 AM ET
