Scenario one: Dinosaurs dominate
Scenario one: Dinosaurs dominate
Established companies reign with legacy technologies like the internal combustion engine. Gas prices stay low, relegating EVs to niche status. 4G technology in cars becomes standard equipment. Smartphones with integrated infotainment systems make access possible while driving. Pent-up demand and new technologies drive U.S. new car sales to 18 million annually (vs. 14 million this year). Emerging markets, squeezed by high congestion and technology costs, must prioritize mass transit over personal transportation.

Winners: Mostly German automakers, as buyers gravitate towards higher-content, high-prestige vehicles. GM trumps Ford, despite the latter's advantages in product turnover and powertrain technology.

Losers: The Japanese. As German, U.S., and Korean manufacturers expand, Japan gets squeezed. Toyota is the only Japanese OEM with a top ranking, and even it finishes below GM. Fiat comes in below average but still higher than Peugeot-Citroen, thanks to its tie-up with Chrysler.


By Alex Taylor III, senior editor-at-large @FortuneMagazine - Last updated July 02 2012: 7:56 AM ET
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