11 worst predictions of 2012

Treasuries rise
bob doll blackrock

What got bond guru Bill Gross into trouble last year was the prediction that investors would tire of puny Treasury yields and flee the ultra-safe securities. This year it was Bob Doll's turn to make the losing bet. The former BlackRock strategist always publishes his list of 10 predictions for the next year, so it's easy to pick on him. But his bet against Treasuries represents a notable mistake.

Consider that in the beginning of January, the 10-year Treasury yielded 1.97%. Twelve months later the rate has fallen to 1.84% after dipping as low as 1.59% earlier in December. There was plenty to keep rates driving lower: spooked investors, the fiscal cliff, and the Fed's Operation Twist policy that is supposed to stoke the economy with low rates. Doll might recall a market truism: you can't fight the Fed.

  @FortuneMagazine - Last updated December 21 2012 07:02 AM ET
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