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LOOKING TO TOKYO U.S. business wants a lower dollar but probably won't get it.
(FORTUNE Magazine) – MANY U.S. BUSINESSMEN, exporters in particular, would love to see the leaders of the industrial world lock arms and rally around Treasury Secretary James Baker's schemes for global economic cooperation. Such amity, they think, could mean a lower dollar, lower interest rates, and less of a debt burden for poorer nations. But the dancers are not quite in step with Baker's tune as they get ready for the annual economic summit scheduled for May 4 in Tokyo. The new internationalism began last September when the finance ministers of the Group of Five -- the U.S., Japan, West Germany, Britain, and France -- gave the dollar a coordinated shove, hastening a decline that was overdue. Since then the dollar has dropped 25% on average against the currencies of the major industrial nations. The spirit of cooperation rose to further heights when the U.S., Japan, and West Germany agreed in early March to cut discount rates in concert. And shortly before the summiteers met, their finance ministers talked amicably about a further cut in interest rates. From now on, though, the negotiating is likely to get tougher, especially on the volatile subject of exchange rates. U.S. exporters want the dollar to drop a lot more. Jerry Jasinowski, chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers, would like to see it fall 15% to 20% further. Since economic fundamentals do not seem likely to pull the dollar down, some businessmen want the statesmen in Tokyo to try another push. ''There's been a major shift in the right direction,'' says Pfizer Chairman Edmund T. Pratt Jr., who also heads the Emergency Committee for American Trade, a group of leading exporters. ''But there needs to be follow-up.'' Japan will resist. The Japanese economy is slowing, and Japanese exporters are howling with the yen at about 180 to the dollar. Japanese politicians might be risking their careers if they tried to help force the dollar down to, say, 150 yen. The Germans, who want to protect their growing trade surplus, will likely resist attempts to strengthen the mark. U.S. exporters would stand to gain if the Japanese helped Third World debtor countries by making more commercial loans to them and by increasing support for the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. But Japan is dragging its feet. Says an official, ''Our government recently increased its contributions. And private Japanese banks must put the interests of their depositors first.'' Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone will most likely endorse the Baker plan for more loans to poor countries but not offer them much cash. Japan is not only the host but also the participant most important to the successful choreography of Baker's new internationalism. Many U.S. businessmen are encouraged by Nakasone's recent promise to seek ''historic'' change in the country's trade policies. But they also are sure the summit will itself be ancient history before they see anything come of that determination. |
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