(FORTUNE Magazine) – AFTER YEARS of oversupply, industrial raw materials have perked up in price with the acceleration of factory production in the U.S. Many farm commodities have also become costlier. All of which suggests fast bucks to be won in the futures markets, but the game requires steel nerves and greater financial risks than most amateur investors should take. The safest proposition is to own gold -- not to make a killing but to diversify your assets with a time- honored hedge against political and economic cataclysm. Gold hit a high of $875 an ounce in 1980 because of anxiety about double- digit inflation and oil supplies, then thudded down to a low of $284 in early 1985. Goldbugs who had bought in at the beginning of the decade wound up looking like hoarders of fool's gold. In the last year or so, with new inflation worries and talk of possible upheaval in South Africa, the world's principal producer, gold's glitter has returned. The price has been climbing most of the time, to a recent $460. No severe economic shocks seem to loom that could send gold up sharply. But the new unease could sustain the price and even nudge it upward. Most precious-metals analysts expect gold to approach $500 in the next six months. Says Bette Raptopoulos, a metals analyst at Prudential-Bache Securities: ''We continue to see bullish factors -- the dollar continuing to ease, energy futures trending modestly higher, and ongoing concern with the likelihood of increasing inflation and the Middle East disturbances.'' Jim Ainsworth of London's S.G. Warburg speaks for the gold bears. He does not expect gold to hit $500 and warns that it could fall to the high 300s in the next year or two. ''I am concerned about increased supply coming to market in North America and Australia,'' Ainsworth says. ''Demand from dentistry, electronics, and jewelry has been relatively constant. And I don't see central banks buying in the volume they once did.'' Until 1974 it was illegal for Americans to own gold, but now they can hold it in many forms. Coins, easier to handle than bullion, range in size from a tenth of an ounce to an ounce. Buy those with the purest gold and the smallest price premium over bullion, which can run as high as 8%. Stocks of U.S. and Canadian gold mining companies have lately offered a faster way to travel the Yellow Brick Road. A small increase in gold's price translates into a much bigger rise in profits, and recently the stocks have careered uphill at racing-car speeds. Some shares, particularly those of companies with mines efficient enough to produce gold for as little as $175 an ounce, sell at price-earnings multiples twice the market's or more. Nonetheless, many analysts believe the stocks still have some climb left. Mining companies' earnings will rise, they predict, even if South Africa's production is undisturbed. Raptopoulos recommends Newmont Gold, 90% owned by Newmont Mining, currently a target of raider T. Boone Pickens. William G. Siedenburg of Smith Barney likes Battle Mountain Gold and Echo Bay Mines. He is not put off by the Echo Bay's P/E multiple of 45, nor is R. Douglas Moffat of Fahnestock & Co. intimidated by the multiple of 75 commanded by American Barrick Resources. The company's earnings will triple in the next three years, he predicts. Other metals do not shine as investments. Platinum and palladium, which shot up in 1986, fell a bit since then before leveling out. Few analysts are urging investors to buy silver. WHAT IF you have a craving for commodity speculation despite the many risks? In futures you can lose many times your stake if the market goes against you. Gladiators are few. Industry sources estimate that only 225,000 Americans have the financial resources and discipline necessary. For them, Peter Ingersoll of Shearson Lehman thinks copper futures are one of the better gambles. As for farm goods, wheat looks iffy, but Steve A. Freed of Dean Witter suggests jumping into soybean futures now -- however, be sure to be out by January 1.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: CHARTS AND GRAPHICS BY RENEE KLEIN SOURCE: COMMODITY EXCHANGE CAPTION: The gyrations of gold After collapsing to a low of $284 an ounce in early 1985, the metal has been climbing steadily. Most analysts are bullish about where it's headed in the immediate future. DESCRIPTION: Gold prices per ounce, quarterly, 1977-1987; Color illustration: Gold bars.