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Why Wall Street Likes Madison Avenue
(FORTUNE Magazine) – The bull market thundered right over them last year, but lately advertising stocks have been getting some respect. Since January they have climbed an average 20% faster than the market, partly on the expectation that the Olympics and the presidential election will boost ad spending. Robert J. Coen of Interpublic's McCann-Erickson subsidiary expects U.S. outlays to rise 9% in 1988. Agencies have also been curbing costs and raising profit margins. Nevertheless, most of the stocks are still selling at price/earnings multiples below the market's, and most Wall Streeters have buy recommendations. Interpublic Group, whose subsidiaries include McCann-Erickson and Lintas, wins broad praise from security analysts. ''If investors didn't know Interpublic was an ad agency and just looked at its financial record, the stock would be much higher,'' says Emma Hill of Wertheim Schroder. She's impressed with the company's consistent earnings growth and its skill in snaring new accounts. Billings from new clients alone, including Xerox and MasterCard, totaled $532 million in 1987. Charles Crane of Prudential-Bache thinks Interpublic's ''real sex appeal'' is in its international reach, since ad spending is growing more rapidly abroad than in the U.S. He expects earnings per share to bound ahead from last year's $2.25 to $2.60 in 1988. Since last fall investors have shied away from London-based Saatchi & Saatchi, whose American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) trade on the Big Board. The company announced that it wanted to buy its way into banking, and doubts about the wisdom of such diversification are widespread. But Greg Ostroff of Goldman Sachs sees a buying opportunity. Saatchi's business is solid, he maintains, noting that the firm has landed $400 million in new accounts since November, including CBS. He expects earnings per ADR to rise 21% in 1988, to $2.60. Andrew Wallach of Drexel Burnham is bullish on WPP Group, the British company that bought JWT Group in mid-1987. The firm's stock, which just began trading over the counter as ADRs, retreated on news that six top executives of Lord Geller, a JWT unit, had left to form a new agency. But Wallach is confident that WPP boss Martin Sorrell, Saatchi's former chief financial officer, can streamline operations. Wallach expects a 34% increase in earnings this year. WPP's clients include Kellogg and Ford. Omnicom Group is the favorite of Alan Gottesman of L.F. Rothschild. Some major clients defected in 1986, after Omnicom was formed by the merger of BBDO International, Doyle Dane Bernbach, and Needham Harper Worldwide. But Gottesman notes that the firm has pulled in such clients as Pizza Hut and Ocean Spray. He expects earnings to climb to $2 this year, vs. $1.40 in 1987. Crane of Prudential-Bache is smitten with nine-year-old WCRS Group, another British agency whose ADRs trade over the counter. Though small, WCRS has been growing rapidly through mergers. Accounts of its major U.S. subsidiary, Della Femina Travisano & Partners, include Isuzu Motors and Dow Consumer Products. Crane, who thinks earnings per ADR will rise 20% this year and next, believes the stock is a bargain. Hill considers Ogilvy Group, whose clients include General Foods and Sears, a ''great'' company. Hill likes Ogilvy's creative strengths, its big international presence, and the added profits it gets by owning the largest direct-marketing business in the world. She expects earnings per share to rise 19% this year to $2.40. CHART: COMPANY REVENUES NET STOCK PRICE RECENT latest four INCOME RANGE PRICE quarters in last 12 P/E multiple(1) in millions millions months Saatchi & Saatchi $1,206 (2) $118 (2) $16.50-$34.375 $23.00 11 Interpublic Group $971 $49 $22.75-$43.50 $33.00 15 Omnicom Group $811 $35 $15.375-$28.75 $19.50 14 Ogilvy Group $739 $30 $20.75-$45.25 $27.75 14 WPP Group $465 $11 $14.75-$20.25 $19.25 18 WCRS Group $121 (3) $13 (4) $6.375-$9.325 $8.75 19 (1)Multiple based on earnings in latest four quarters. (2)Fiscal year ended September 30, 1987. (3)Estimate for period ended October 31, 1987. (4) Period ended October 31, 1987. CREDIT: NO CREDIT CAPTION: A PIECE OF HUCKSTERDOM These publicly traded agencies all have boosters among the security analysts. The Kabuki warrior ad for Lipton tea is from Interpublic. DESCRIPTION: Financial data for several advertising stocks. |
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